Robert P. Balan | TalkMarkets | Page 2

Robert P. Balan

Managing Owner and CIO, Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan runs Predictive Analytic Models, #1-rated trading unit at Seeking Alpha. PAM trades Swiss HF funds using Federal Reserve, US Treasury, and term (money) market liquidity data flows as basis for trading decisions. He is domiciled in Zurich, Switzerland. Robert Balan 5 decades of ...more
Following: 50 Followers: 1240

Blogs

Latest Posts
17 to 32 of 85 Posts
<<< 1 2 3 4 ... 6 >>>
Bond Yields Moving Up Again, Pressure Builds Up On Equities
Friday, May 28, 2021 10:32 AM EDT
10Yr Yield is moving up again -- so we should see pressure build up on the equities later today, once the rise in yields has taken off for good.
Read
PAM Adjusts To The Shift In Equity-Yield Covariance Back To Positive; Equities Lower, Yields Fall On Quarterly Rebalancing Frontrun
Thursday, March 25, 2021 8:01 AM EDT
We believe that this change in covariance in yield and equities -- back to positive -- may not last. It's probably just equity players frontrunning the quarterly rebalancing. It's taking profits from equities, and plowing the proceeds back to the bond market. Simple rebalancing, put another way.
Read
Trail-Stops Took Profits From Equity Longs; The Positive Covariance Between Bond Yields, Equities Is Back; We Reset The Tactical Strategy Accordingly
Tuesday, March 23, 2021 8:37 AM EDT
We reset long equity positions at downward breach of 1.6520 support in 10Yr yield. The 10yr yield fell below 1.6500 support, but equity indexes fell as well. We start seeing a shift back to the positive covariance between yield, equities. We reset the tactical strategy accordingly.
Read
PAM Re-Initiates Modest Long Equity Trades Mindful Of A "Dead Cat Bounce," But Equities May Be Boosted By Bank Share Buybacks And Dividend Payouts
Sunday, March 21, 2021 6:01 PM EDT
We have an eye out for what bond yields will do next, now that the Fed has ruled out extending the SLR relief. We re-initiated modest long equities but have to decide further early next whether a subsequent equity upmove is merely a dead cat bounce or a new bid for higher, all-time-highs.
Read
FOMC Day Was No Bloodbath, But No Resolution To The SLR Issue -- Bond Yields Will Continue To Rise Further In The Short Term, At Least
Thursday, March 18, 2021 9:38 AM EDT
Fed policy remains very accommodative (no change) as FFR will remain at zero until 2023 -- but the Fed decided to kick the SLR can ahead "for a few days." PAM now believes that the Fed will NOT renew the SLR exemptions for reserves and Treasury holdings of the commercial and investment banks.
Read
All You Want To Know About The SLR, And What The Fed Needs To Do About It During The FOMC Meeting On March 17
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 8:34 AM EDT
It is unlikely that the Fed will ignore the bond yield surge hullabaloo, when there are very simple solutions to the bond tantrum On aggregate basis, US banks may dump as much as $650 billion of US Treasury securities in very short order, if the SLR is re-imposed with no relief to PDs/MOTUs.
Read
DXY May Make One More Lower Low; Fed Likely To Extend SLR Provision Moratorium For Another 6 Months At Least
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 10:37 PM EDT
NFIB data turns inflationary, but Core CPI lags that data by one year. Therefore, US/global yields may bottom only by May-June 2021 period. Therefore, DXY makes one more lower low. You have to be careful about the timing of using long US Dollar (DXY) trades as hedges for a commodity-heavy portfolio.
Read
Dissecting The Commodity Bull Phase: It's About To End, Following The Recent Roll-Over Of China "Social Financing" Impulse
Monday, March 15, 2021 12:27 PM EDT
Simply put, the impact of fiscal and budgetary expenditures in China is being transmitted to the real economy via the Total Social Financing expenditures. This leading indicator has already peaked, has declined sharply, and is about to fall further.
Read
We're Seeing The Return Of Positive Covariance Between The Value Sector And Bond Yields; Keeping Long Equity Trades Until The FOMC Meeting
Sunday, March 14, 2021 1:48 PM EDT
Yields are surging, and equities have generally risen. Is the positive covariance between yields and equities coming back? Would equities now rise with yields, and vice versa? That's looking like a possibility now. We should take profits from long trades which have done well.
Read
PAM Resets Long Equity Trades On Moderating Bond Yields, As Core CPI Is Set To Fall Until Late Q2 2021
Friday, March 12, 2021 1:50 PM EDT
We reset our long equity scalpers on the assumption that passage of the COVID-19 stimulus bill will push equity valuations further, as well as the beneficial effect of lower yields.Headline CPI met expectations, but Core Headline was again a upside miss. Core was lower than expected.
Read
China Equity Markets Bottoming Out; Took Profits From Long US Equities, Awaiting The Core CPI Data To Lower Bond Yields
Thursday, March 11, 2021 2:01 AM EDT
There's evidence that China started supporting its equity market again, after jawboning Chinese (and US) stocks lower last week. The ploy may have something to do with CNY devaluation. PAM community took profits from long equity positions, will reset long equity trades only if we see yields fall.
Read
PAM's Tools Suggest An Equity Market Upside Correction Ends This Week; The Long Bond Yield Rally Also Peaking Just Slightly Ahead
Tuesday, March 9, 2021 11:39 AM EDT
Our model for buying behavior of central banks re US long-term Treasuries, suggests that the 10yr yield peaks this week and will be lower till the middle of April. The liquidity models suggest that ongoing upside (sideways) corrections of equities from peaks made on February 15, to peak this week.
Read
The Best Of PAM's Week-End Musings: Community Members' Take On Powell's Inaction, China's Stock Market, The Commodity "Super-Cycle"
Monday, March 8, 2021 5:34 AM EDT
We are on equities and the entire environment and I will give a brief and simple explanation why from a sentiment point of view. Markets can be exuberant for way too long and can be pessimistic for way too long. There is always a reversion to the mean.
Read
Equity Short Hedges Neutralized; PAM Resets Long Equity Trades, Looking For Test Of Previous Index Tops Early Next Week
Sunday, March 7, 2021 4:47 AM EDT
We were anticipating market lows Friday. The trough did come but amidst extreme market volatility caused by FDIC announcement that the SLR will not be extended; markets unhappy. It's equities strangely having a tantrum due to SLR issues which are remit of the bond market; yields were rock steady.
Read
Still Rising Fed Balance Sheet Supports A Rally In Yields And In Equities For A Few Days Longer
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 9:38 AM EDT
We have to start looking at the possibility that the positive covariance between equities and yields returns soon. But what may realistically happen, is that when yields aren't rising, equities will rally higher; vice versa. But the trend for both equities and yields could be higher a week longer.
Read
(Feb 27 - Mar 2 - Pre NY Open): Took Profits From Long Equity Scalpers, Waiting For Yields To Fall Further; PAM Resets Longs Equities If 1.3950 Yield Support Gives Way
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 9:11 AM EDT
We need to see further yield declines, and completion of a five wave sequence to provide some basis for believing that we have seen a critical yield top. If we see new declines below 1.3850, that could be the proof. Another back up higher and new breach of 1.46 suggests yields have not peaked yet.
Read
17 to 32 of 85 Posts
<<< 1 2 3 4 ... 6 >>>