Robert P. Balan - Comments
Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)

Robert P. Balan runs a trading and trading advisory service, Predictive Analytic Models, (PAM) at Seeking Alpha. PAM provides REAL-TIME trading advice and strategies and actual trades using guidance from US Treasury, Federal Reserve and term market money ... more

Latest Comments
The Equity Market Outlook Until The First Half Of December 2020 Is Not A Pretty Sight, Liquidity-Wise
15 days ago

Yes, I was told that Carl. Busy making money, but will write more.

'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
1 year ago

Repo rates go up when bank reserves fall because the reserves are being used as collateral in inter-bank lending. See the chart provided above. The reserves are not being lent out. Having little collateral is just like raising rates, and usually that is what happens with the dearth of collateral.

That depends on the context of what Dimon was saying, Rising rates USUALLY steepen the yield curve, and that helps the loan portfolios of banks, not hurt them. You understand of course that banks borrow short and the lend long, so rising rates improves their Bet Interest Margin income.

#What if treasuries, the collateral of choice in derivatives markets, lose too much value too quickly#

Just what hypothetical case of how much yield rise are you talking about and in what time frame? Of course for your fears to be realized the rise in yields, to be disastrous, have to really very high and very rapid. The 10 yr yield fell from the 8 November top of 3.3 to a low of 1.47 in less than a year, but the stock market went to new highs. One can always invoke hypothetical cases. but how realistic is your scenario? Its hard to argue against hypothetical cases because they have never happened. Give me a concrete situation, instead of a hypothetical question, otherwise we will be debating this issue for some time.

In this article: SPX, BITCOMP, ETH-X, UGAZ
'We Have Lift-Off': Yields Lead The Charge Higher; Load Up On Equities, Exit Gold Longs, And Sell US Dollars
1 year ago

Thanks for the comments Gary. In this case, rising yields are associated with rising bank reserves, so that means funding costs (term market rates, e,g, repo) will still be falling. It is easy and cheap enough to get funding from the term (money) market without resorting to margin calls.

In this article: SPX, BITCOMP, ETH-X, UGAZ
What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
1 year ago

Fantastic article, Alan. Thanks for sharing.

PAM Sells The DXY And Buy EUR, AUD; Sells Gasoline And Refiners - Opportunistic Trades
1 year ago

Maybe you start with the primers Adam.

In this article: UGA, UUP
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
1 year ago

Hey Alan,

Thanks for steering me to TalkMarkets. You were on holiday?s?

In this article: QQQ, GLD, SLV, TLT, UUP, SPX, CRAK, DRIP
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