Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
|
Week of November 16 |
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November 16 |
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
13.5 |
10.5 |
13.5 |
November 17 |
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Retail Sales - October |
0.6% |
1.9 |
0.5 |
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.7 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas |
0.8 |
1.5 |
|
Retail Sales, Autos |
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Industrial Production - October |
1.4% |
-0.6 |
1.0 |
Capacity Utilization |
72.7 |
71.5 |
72.2 |
Manufacturing |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
1.0 |
Business Inventories - September |
0.5% |
0.3 |
0.5 |
NAHB Index |
85 |
85 |
85 |
Export Prices - October |
0.3% |
0.6 |
0.3 |
Import Prices |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
November 18 |
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Housing Starts - October |
1.470M |
1.415 |
1.460 |
Building Permits |
1.570 |
1.553 |
1.560 |
November 19 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
690K |
709 |
705 |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
22.0 |
32.3 |
24.0 |
Existing Home Sales - October |
6.470M |
6.540 |
6.450 |
Leading Indicators |
0.7% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
Week of November 23 |
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November 23 |
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index - October |
0.27 |
0.27 |
|
PMI Services Flash Index |
56.0 |
56.0 |
|
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
53.0 |
53.4 |
|
November 24 |
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - September |
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Twenty City M/M |
0.0% |
1.1 |
|
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
4.6 |
5.2 |
|
FHFA Housing Price Index - Sept |
1.0% |
1.5 |
|
Consumer Confidence - November |
101.5 |
100.9 |
99.0 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
21.0 |
29 |
|
November 25 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
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Durable Goods Sales - October |
1.6% |
1.9 |
|
International Trade in Goods - October |
-$81.0B |
-79.4 |
|
Wholesale Inventories - October (p) |
0.2% |
0.4 |
|
GDP - Q3 (r) |
33.2% |
33.1 |
33.2 |
PCE Core Deflator |
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Personal Income - October |
0.3% |
0.9 |
0.6 |
Personal Spending |
0.7 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
New Home Sales - October |
970K |
959 |
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (r) |
78.0 |
77.0 |
78.5 |