Hunting for Alpha Using Supervised Machine Learning and Global Macro Analysis.
Contributor's Links: Waters Technology

Pej Hamidi is the founder of Alpha Insights LLC, a stand alone fund manager carved out of Compellon, his former employer specializing in prescriptive intelligence using proprietary AI and supervised machine learning.  While the majority of Pej's running models are quantitative ... more


A Better Way To Short Volatility
Buying put options in VXX has a superior risk to reward profile compared to shorting VXX shares by limiting risk and providing positive vega exposure.
Yellow Flag Is Up Cautioning MOMO Traders - Dow Divergence In Momentum Cause For Defensive Posture
Deteriorating market internals are a clear warning of slowing momentum, suggesting caution would be prudent. Cheap OTM puts and maybe take a little off the table perhaps?
Drowning In Cash From The Perfect Storm
Northern Oil & Gas gets everything to line up in their favor, creating a tsunami of cash which becomes a self-perpetuating cycle.
Upwork: Substantial Upside Opportunity In Workforce Mobility
Upwork went public on October 3, 2018, just before the stock market went through a major dive. Following a high on March 1, this pullback offers a solid entry for a company with substantial opportunity and compelling value proposition.
How To Read Tea Leaves - The FOMC And Policy Communication
There is confusing macro outlook as US dollar strengthens, and Euro weakens. The weakness in crude oil also creates a lot of noise for investors. FOMC minutes suggest the Fed is guiding rates using statements rather than changing policy.


Latest Comments
Upwork: Substantial Upside Opportunity In Workforce Mobility
3 years ago

When $UPWK debuted back in October of last year, the shares were oversubscribed by a factor of 20x. A colleague of mine noted that "nearly every investor that met with the company on the roadshow put in an order". They are a first mover and the market opportunity is estimated to be around $560 BILLION.

One potential catalyst for the share price which has fallen off the radar since the December swoon, is their partnership with $MSFT. On Dec 7, #Microsoft announced a partnership with UPWK to launch the Microsoft 365 freelance Toolkit. "The toolkit is an integrated workforce collaboration solution that helps enterprises work with freelancers at scale and is powered by Microsoft 365 and Upwork Enterprise". This move was very much inspired by Microsoft's own initiative to embrace a flexible talent model. Microsoft launched an internal pilot program to give employees access to flexible, freelance talent. Within the past year, Microsoft completed over 2100 projects on Upwork. These projects included writing, research, video editing, translation, design and data science. This level of integration is reminiscent of the early partnership between Microsoft and LinkedIn before Microsoft acquired them.

The market opportunity for #Upwork is huge, expanding and mostly untapped. So where are the analysts? This has a great deal to do with how the investment banking model works and a little known sell-side strategy called "momentum ignition". This involves a (possibly coordinated) series of "beat and raise" actions by sell-side analysts intended to trigger a mark-up phase in the stock price following a period of accumulation for their institutional client's books. To accumulate shares, the stock needs to have unrestricted float. Their post-IPO restriction period has not ended yet. Contrary to popular belief, stocks don't necessarily go down when the IPO restriction ends.

UPWK becomes an extremely juicy takeover candidate for a company like MSFT as the latter is positioning itself to dominate the B.I. and workforce productivity markets.

The rate at which companies are shifting towards a flexible workforce is accelerating and we are in the early stages of a systemic shift that will see flexible workforce models becoming the norm.

In this article: UPWK
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Work Experience

President, Founding Member
Alpha Insights LLC
September 2018 - Present (4 years 3 months)
Senior VP, Quantitative Trading and Capital Markets
January 2017 - October 2018 (1 year 10 months)

Compellon has a powerful AI analytics platform with customers from manufacturing, IoT, business intelligence, sales, marketing, and consumer loyalty. I joined to extend the company's reah into quantitative trading desks. After building several high value predictors, we decided to launch Alpha Insights to build a stand alone AUM business.

Quantitative & Discretionary Cash Equities Trader
Advanced Quantitative Proprietary Trading Firm
February 2014 - March 2016 (2 years 2 months)

Quantitative and Discretionary trading across cash equities. 

Algorithm Developer & Product Manager
Quantitative Trading Solutions
June 2010 - January 2014 (3 years 8 months)

Managed execution trading and process improvement for the entire life cycle of order flow.

Vice President
Apogee Asset Management
January 2004 - November 2009 (6 years)

Global Macro Hedge Fund engaged in multi-asset class trading who also pioneered several statistical arbitrage and other quantitative models. 


University of Texas
2015 / 2017
Software Egineering
UC San Diego
BA Philosophy and Economics
2010 / 2013
B.A Philosophy; Economics, Econometrics, Computer Science, Behavioral Finance


101 Rules of Trading Discipline
Pej Hamidi

Too many trading rule books lose readers in complex mathematics and boring tales. 101 keeps things simple giving traders the essential rules they will need from capital preservation to aggressive directional tactics for short and long term success.

Written by Pej Hamidi, a well-known portfolio manager and "Philosopher Capitalist" as his friends call him, this book is suited for every type of trader.

For every rule, there is a brief description and explanation, along with a real-world example to illustrate the idea in action. Dividing his 101 rules into three main parts -- Trading Disciplines, Market Disciplines, and Personal Disciplines -- Hamidi provides straightforward guidance and advice including: 
-- Don't confuse a profitable trade with a good trade
-- Methodically trade with a trading plan, not with hope
-- Watch for signs of impending market danger, and tactically go from defensive to offensive strategies.