Norman Mogil | TalkMarkets | Page 15
Consulting Economist
I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...more

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The Perfect Storm Hits The Canadian Oil Sector
Yesterday, Canadian oil prices hit a record low of $13.27 bbl as the full brunt of the storm hit western Canada.
Why The Bank Of Canada Should Back Off From Further Rate Hikes
After raising the bank rate three times this year alone, Governor Poloz continues to signal that the Bank is nowhere near completing its current cycle of rate increases.
The Oil Price Collapse Will Hit Canada
Revised data from Statistics Canada confirmed that Canada’s economy suffered even worse than previously reported from the massive decline in oil prices that began in 2014.
BoC Pushes Back
Every central banker has long wanted to see higher long-term rates and an upward sloping yield curve as a sign that the economy is healthy and growing. However, the actions of the central banks are making difficult to maintain a healthy economy.
The Bank Of Canada Will Drop Anchor At A 3% Bank Rate
Governor Poloz of the Bank of Canada has been telling Canadians to get ready for a bank rate of 3%. He is anchoring on that number based on the concept of “neutral rate of interest,” also touted by the Fed.
Canadian Homeowners Circumvent Recent Mortgage Restrictions
Canada introduced a set of tougher mortgage qualification rules in late 2017 that are now changing the landscape for prospective home purchasers.
The Bank Of Canada Is Way Too Optimistic In Its Outlook
Everyone likes to hear an optimist speak, yet optimism needs to be tempered with reality and that is what is missing in the Bank of Canada’s recent policy statement.
The Bank Of Canada Holds Out For A ‘Neutral’ Rate Of Interest
Increasingly, we are hearing central bankers yearn for a ‘neutral ‘policy rate as they pursue a path of rate hikes.
No Longer In The Shadows, Leverage Loans Pose New Risks
Somewhat late to the game, the Federal Open Market Committee finally acknowledged that they are watching the risks to financial stability stemming from the more than $1 trillion market for U.S. leveraged loans.
Rising Long-Term Interest Rates: Be Careful For What You Wish For
The surge in U.S. long-term interest rates has long been desired as a sign of strong economic growth, yet it does not come about without consequences.
The U.S. Treasury Sell-Off Needs To Be Confirmed By Inflationary Pressures
Can the Fed continue to raise rates without creating a recession? The bond market is notorious for its fear of inflation.
The IMF Shines A Spotlight On The Risks In The Emerging Markets
Downgrading world economic growth from 3.9% to 3.7% for 2019 does not seem worthy of headlines. Let’s see what is behind this revision and what risks lie ahead.
A First Look At The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement On Trade
Let’s look at the major issues negotiated.
The Basic Flaw In The EU Fiscal Position: The Case Of Italy Today
Having survived the 2012 EU debt crisis, bond traders are now focussed on the looming crisis in Italy as that country’s government is prepared to run large fiscal deficits.
It Is Easy To Understand Why The U.S. Has Backed Down On NAFTA Deadlines With Canada
The facts regarding trade with Canada fly in the face of the President’s contention that NAFTA “is the worse deal” ever made.
Credit Markets Foreshadow A Slowdown In The Canadian Economy
One of the most reliable ways to forecast economic growth is to note carefully the changes in the rate at which credit grows.
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