New Deal Democrat | TalkMarkets | Page 9
Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ...more

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The Bifurcation In The New Vs. Existing Home Market Continues
Unlike existing homeowners, many of whom are shackled in place by 3% mortgages, new home builders can offer price incentives and downsize floor plans to increase sales.
Stock Prices And Bond Yields During Disinflationary, Deflationary, And Reflationary Periods
This is an update of a post I wrote almost exactly 10 years ago. I’m doing this because of an important secular change I noticed that appears to have happened in the financial markets.
A Further Examination Of The State Of The Economic Tailwind
With no big economic news today, I thought I would pick up where I left off on Friday, when I identified three major reasons for the economic tailwind that prevented a recession from happening in the past 12 months.
Why The Index Of Leading Indicators Failed: Examining The Once In A Lifetime Post-Pandemic Tailwind
The decline in commodity prices that began after June 2022 was only exceeded in the past 100 years by that during the Great Depression, the Depression of 1938, and the Great Recession. 
The Collapse Of The Existing Home Market Continues In September
Sales declined another -8,000 on an annualized basis to 3.960 million. This is the lowest number since August 2010.
Initial Claims On The Cusp Of Turning Lower YoY
Initial jobless claims dropped below 200,000 last week for the first time since January, and not too far from the 50+ year low of 182,000 set in September one year ago.
The Last Holdout In Housing Data Has Turned; ‘Recession Watch’ For Next 12 Months Remains
The entire housing market has finally turned. If mortgage remain at their current levels, the likelihood of a recession at some point in the next 12 months has increased substantially.
Like Retail Sales, Motor Vehicles Lead The Way In Industrial Production
As with retail sales earlier this morning, motor vehicle production is playing an outsized role in expansion this year.
A Big Jump In Motor Vehicle Sales Highlights A Good September For Retail Sales
 As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy.
The “Bearish Steepening” And The Death Of Refinancing
If you’ve paid much attention to the financial press in recent days, you have probably read stories that the yield curve - the line that traces the difference in rates in different length bond maturities - has moved towards un-inverting.
Real Average Wages And Decline, While Real Aggregate Payroll Gains Remain Below Peak
Nominally wages increased 0.2% for the month. With consumer prices up 0.4%, real wages declined -0.2%.
Except For Fictitious Shelter And Vehicle Repairs, September Inflation Was Moderate
With the main exception of fictitious shelter, consumer inflation in September remained relatively subdued, but as anticipated has stopped decelerating.
The Good News Continues On Initial Claims
I’ll parse the CPI report later this morning, but first, let’s update initial jobless claims.
September Producer Prices Confirm Economic Tailwind Has Ended
If consumer inflation simply stops decelerating, it will lessen the gap between prices and aggregate consumer income, meaning slower economic growth at least.
A Note On Middle Eastern Turmoil And Gas And Oil Prices
With the newest shock in the Middle East, conventional wisdom is that the price of oil and gas will spike.
Scenes From The September Jobs Report: A Look At Leading Indicators
Today is a holiday, so no new economic news. So let’s take a look at some of the leading indicators I was tracking last week for the employment report, and some leading indicators for the economy within that report itself.
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