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New Deal Democrat

Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ...more
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33 to 48 of 1071 Posts
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January JOLTS Report Shows More (Relative) Weakening, Downward Revisions To 2023
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 1:28 PM EDT
The JOLTS report for January showed only minor changes compared with December, all to the downside, but was somewhat overshadowed by mainly downward revisions to all of 2023.
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Real Incomes And Presidential Approval
Tuesday, March 5, 2024 1:50 PM EDT
Most measures did not surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2023, or this year.
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Manufacturing And Construction Show Softness To Start The Month
Friday, March 1, 2024 11:13 AM EDT
Both leading sectors showed softness in these reports, but not enough to suggest any significant change of trend to a downturn at this point.
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Initial Claims Still Very Positive, Especially YoY
Thursday, February 29, 2024 12:42 PM EDT
New jobless claims rose 13,000 to 215,000, while the four-week moving average declined -3,000 to 212,500.
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January Personal Income And Spending: Goldilocks Is Knocking At The Door
Thursday, February 29, 2024 10:21 AM EDT
Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow, because it nets out the impacts of higher interest rates and abating inflation due to the unlinking of the supply chain.
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The State Of Freight
Wednesday, February 28, 2024 10:45 AM EDT
There’s no significant economic news today. Yesterday we did get durable goods orders, which are an official leading indicator. I don’t pay too much attention to them, because they are so volatile.
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Repeat Sales House Price Indexes Continue To Increases On Par With Past Expansions
Tuesday, February 27, 2024 10:50 AM EDT
House prices lag home sales, which in turn lag mortgage rates. Yesterday we got the final January reading on sales. This morning we got the final monthly (for December) read on prices, for repeat sales of existing homes.
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New Home Sales And YoY Prices Change Little
Monday, February 26, 2024 3:48 PM EDT
The likelihood is that single family permits will stall out at current levels and quite likely even decline in coming months, following the recent downward trend in sales.
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The “Gold Standard” Of Employment Reports
Friday, February 23, 2024 5:30 PM EDT
The “gold standard” of employment reports suggests that last summer’s job growth was even weaker than we thought.
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The Bottoming Process In Existing Home Sales Continues, As YoY Price Comparisons Increase
Thursday, February 22, 2024 12:50 PM EDT
The bifurcation of the housing market between new and existing home components continues, as existing home sales continue near their bottom, but with a little improvement.
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The Good News On Jobless Claims Continues - Thursday, Feb. 22
Thursday, February 22, 2024 9:05 AM EDT
The good news on jobless claims continued this week, as initial claims declined from -12,000 to 201,000.
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Perceptions Of Inflation Vs. Wage Growth: Why The Divergence?
Wednesday, February 21, 2024 12:30 PM EDT
Although we’ve seen improvement recently across measures of consumer confidence, there are two reasons for the persistence in the belief that inflation has made people, in general, worse off.
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Housing Construction Essentially Stable In January
Friday, February 16, 2024 4:47 PM EDT
Mortgage rates have declined about 1% from their peak during the autumn, and are about equal to where they were one year ago:
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Retail Sales Faceplant; Industrial Production Continues 16 Month Streak Of Weakness
Friday, February 16, 2024 9:07 AM EDT
Retail sales can be volatile monthly, and about once in a typical year they either faceplant or unexpectedly soar. Yesterday we got the faceplant.
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Initial Claims Remain Positive
Thursday, February 15, 2024 10:30 AM EDT
Initial jobless claims declined this week from -8,000 to 212,000.
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January 2024 Consumer Inflation: Still A Tug Of War Between Gas And Housing
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 10:00 AM EDT
The total inflation rose 0.3% in January, and 3.1% YoY, while core inflation (less food and energy) rose 0.4% for the month and 3.9% YoY.
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