New Deal Democrat | TalkMarkets | Page 23
Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ...more

Articles

Latest Posts
353 to 368 of 1070 Posts
<<< 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 ... 67 >>>
Durable Goods Orders Appear To Have Peaked
New factory orders for durable goods declined by -2.1% in November, while “core” durable goods orders excluding aircraft and defense increased by 0.2%.
Initial Claims Continue In Range; Why They Will Give Us A Lead On When The Sahm Rule For Recessions May Be Triggered
Initial claims ticked up 2,000 last week to 216,000. The 4-week moving average declined 6,250 to 221,750.
November Existing Home Sales: Prices Have Unequivocally Turned Down
Sales continued their relentless decline this year, down to 4.09 million on an annualized basis, down almost 1/3rd from their recent February peak of 6.02 million.
November Housing Permits And Starts: The Biggest News Is Not In The Headlines
The report on housing construction for November was very much a tale of two very different trends - and the most important one will almost certainly be under-reported.
Job Growth Beginning In Q2 Looks To Be Substantially Revised Downward
Last week the Philadelphia Fed published a working paper suggesting that in the second quarter of this year only 10,500 jobs were actually added, rather than the 1,047,000 as indicated by the monthly Establishment survey.
November Real Retail Sales Turn Down, Return To Negative YoY
Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead.
The Status Of The Coincident Indicators
In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon four other data points in determining the onset month of a recession.
November Industrial Production
Industrial production declined by -0.2% in November, and manufacturing production declined by -0.6%, essentially returning both indicators to their levels of July.
Real Average And Aggregate Non-Managerial Wages For November
With November’s consumer inflation report in the books, let’s update two measures of how the working/middle class is doing - real average non-supervisory wages, and real aggregate payrolls.
November CPI: Thank You, Gas Prices; No Thank You, Owners’ Equivalent Rent
Since June, overall consumer inflation has increased by 1.0%, so is increasing at a 2.2% annual rate. Core inflation has increased by 1.9% or a 4.7% annual rate. 
A Brief Overview Of The Current State Of The Economy
This week we get the final most important data of 2022, with consumer prices tomorrow and industrial production and retail sales Thursday.
November Producer Prices: YoY Measures Mask Recent Sharp Deceleration To Mainly Tolerable Levels
Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer prices.
Scenes From The November Employment Report: The Short Leading Jobs Indicators
There were some significant developments in the past several months, so let’s take a closer look here.
New Factory Orders Remain An Economic Bright Spot
Total new factory orders rose 1.0%. “Core” orders excluding defense and aircraft rose 0.6%.
November Jobs Report: Decidedly Mixed Signals
263,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased by 221,000. Government jobs increased by 42,000.
Initial Jobless Claims Get Closer To Signaling Recession
Initial claims declined -16,000 from last week’s 3-month high to 225,000.
353 to 368 of 1070 Posts
<<< 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 ... 67 >>>