New Deal Democrat | TalkMarkets | Page 2
Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ...more

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Real Personal Income And Spending: If Last Month Was “Goldilocks”, This Month Was Close To “Anti-Goldilocks”
Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports.
Initial Claims Remain Somnolent, While Continuing Claims Pop Slightly
The divergence in the trends between initial and continuing claims continued this week.
A Detailed Look At Manufacturing
There are three manufacturing metrics that are “official” components of the index of Leading Economic Indicators.
Repeat Home Sales Price Declined Slightly In January
This morning the FHFA purchase only price index through January declined -0.1% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while the YoY gain decelerated from 6.6% to 6.3% YoY.
As Mortgage Rates Remain Rangebound, So Do New Home Sales
While new home sales are the most leading of the housing metrics, they are noisy and heavily revised.
Signs Of A Thaw In The Frozen Existing Homes Market, But A Very Long Way To Go
While there are definitely signs of improvement, the existing home market has a long way - as in, about 400,000 more monthly active listings and 100,000 new monthly listings - to go.
The Positive Streak Of News From Initial And Continuing Jobless Claims Continues
Initial and continuing claims once again continued their recent good streak.
“Are You Better Off Than You Were Four Years Ago?”
Except for those periods late in recessions and shortly thereafter, when the price of gas has typically declined sharply but the unemployment rate is very high, generally speaking, the lower the cost of gas, the higher the consumer sentiment.
Housing Construction Rebounds In February, As Permits And Starts Are Stable And Rebounding
New home sales have rebounded, and new home prices are in a bottoming process.
Manufacturing And Construction Vs. The Still-Inverted Yield Curve
If there is no recession by May 1, we’re in uncharted territory as far as the yield curve indicator is concerned.
Industrial And Manufacturing Production Improve For The Month
Industrial production is an indicator that has faded somewhat in importance in the modern era since China’s accession to normal trading status in 2000.
Good News And Bad News Thursday: The Bad News Is Real Retail Sales
The bad economic news this morning was that after taking into account inflation, retail sales, which rose 0.6% nominally, were only up 0.2%, and last month’s number, was revised down a further -0.3% to -1.1%.
Good News And Bad News Thursday: The Good News Is Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims continue very low, at 209,000, up 17,000 from last week, while the four week average declined -750 to 208,000.
The Most Potent Labor Market Indicator Of All Is Still Strongly Positive
Historically, as economic expansions progress and the unemployment rate goes down, average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers improve at an increasing rate.
February Consumer Inflation: The Tug Of War Between Gasoline And Shelter Continues
We can expect headline inflation to continue to be fairly stable, and shelter to continue to show disinflation, leading to gradually lower core inflation readings as well.
Scenes From The February Jobs Report
A look at some of the data from Friday’s employment report. In particular, the Household Survey portion of that report was downright recessionary.
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