Michael Ashton | TalkMarkets | Page 13
Inflation Products and Markets Expert
Contributor's Links: E-piphany What’s Wrong With Money?
On Bloomberg TV his audiences know him as the “Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer, having traded the very first interbank US inflation swaps and having been the sole market maker for the CPI futures contract. He is considered as the ...more

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Do Shortages Cause Lower Prices?
Once there are no bonds, central banks will have to stop buying them. And when the central banks stop buying bonds, their prices should fall.
Post-CPI (For August)
This is an ugly report. The sticky components, the ones that have momentum, continue to push inexorably higher (in the case of housing), or aggressively higher (in the case of medical care).
Reforming Priors And Re-Forming Europe
By now, you have probably heard that the sun did not set on the British Empire as a result of BrExit.
Need A Jedi To Blow Up The R-Star
According to Williams, the neutral interest rate is lower at least in part because…central banks added a lot of liquidity. Kind of circular, ain’t it?
Summary, Post-CPI
The bottom line for markets in the near-term is that nothing about this number scares policymakers.
The IMF Tries To Cause Japanese Unemployment
Deflation can be bad, but it doesn’t need to come with massive unemployment. In Japan, it has not: the unemployment rate is 3.1%, the lowest it has been since 1995.
August, Productivity And Prices
We should realize that if there is a change in the rate of productivity growth it has implications for growth, but also for inflation.
Shooting Blanks
Central banks are not shooting an inaccurate, awkward weapon in the fight to stimulate growth, which just needs to be fired a lot more so that something eventually hits. They are shooting blanks.
August: More Esther, Less Mester
The last two weeks of July felt a lot like August typically does. Thin, lethargic trading; somewhat gappy but directionless. Ten-year Treasury note futures held a 1-point range except for a few minutes last Thursday.
Homes Are Where The Heat Is
New Home Sales were released today, showing a new seasonally-adjusted post-crisis high. To be sure, sales are still well off the bubble highs, but they are back to roughly average for the period prior to the bubble.
Post-CPI Summary
Breakeven inflation is low, low, low for more than a decade in the future according to the market. Considerably lower than today’s core inflation. It is a bet that looks increasingly out-of-whack.
UK Property Price Declines – Rational Or Overdone?
A couple of weeks after Brexit, and the world has not ended. Indeed, in the UK the fallout seems relatively tame.
Britain Survived The Blitz And Will Survive Brexit
We can cheer for a victory for independence and freedom, while continuing to fight against any tendency towards economic isolationism.
Inflation Will Continue To Rise; Tweeting Post CPI
A day after the FOMC chose to stand pat on interest rates, core inflation pushed back higher and median inflation is about to push above 2.5% for the first time since 2009 (when it was on the way down).
Not Enough TIPS To Go Around
We cannot own enough TIPS to matter if inflation rises to a level that would concern us, because the return if inflation does not rise is so horrible. And, in fact, our hedge ratio would probably be above 100%.
Obamacare, Monopsonies, And Inflation – Nice Try!
A steady downward trend in health-care services price inflation over the past decade has been a major factor holding down core inflation.
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