Menzie Chinn | TalkMarkets | Page 66

Menzie Chinn

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin
Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues. Menzie received a PhD in economics from the ...more
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The Trumpian World As Natural Experiment
Monday, November 11, 2019 11:20 PM EDT
The Trump economic policy regime (if it can be called that) has provided several “natural experiments”.
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Why Is The 2019 Slowdown Different Than The 2016 Slowdown?
Monday, November 11, 2019 4:00 PM EDT
Who’s going to pick up the slack this time?
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“CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update”
Friday, November 8, 2019 7:59 AM EDT
Here is a comparison of two-year forecasts by CBO and the Federal Reserve.
In this article: AU, F, FCAU, GM
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Recession Probabilities, September-October 2020
Monday, November 4, 2019 1:42 AM EDT
With all the talk about possible recessions, this chart is worth a look.
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Deceleration
Saturday, November 2, 2019 10:46 AM EDT
Over the last week, we’ve had new readings on employment, income, sales, and monthly GDP:
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Real House Prices Decline
Wednesday, October 30, 2019 6:55 AM EDT
Case-Shiller indices came out yesterday. August prices for the 20 city index declined m/m, and Zillow’s forecast for the CS 20 city index in September was for another decline.
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“Weaponization Of The Dollar May Backfire”
Sunday, October 27, 2019 12:30 PM EDT
This is a good time to gauge the rankings of the dollar and its rivals as major international currencies.
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Growth Deceleration?
Friday, October 25, 2019 4:19 PM EDT
The nowcasts indicate a slowdown.
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Real Home Prices
Friday, October 25, 2019 2:04 PM EDT
Case-Shiller August prices come out next week. For now, we have Zillow prices through September and Zillow forecast.
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Where’s That 4% Growth Trump Promised (Or For That Matter, 5%)?
Tuesday, October 22, 2019 9:39 PM EDT
We have two and a half years of observations on GDP, and a couple quarters of nowcasts, to consider.
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The Manufacturing Downturn Compared To 2014-16
Sunday, October 20, 2019 1:30 AM EDT
In 2014-16, production and non-supervisory employment continued to rise even as hours and production declined. In 2018-19, all three have declined relative to peak.
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Manufacturing Output Under Last Obama Term, Now
Saturday, October 19, 2019 3:14 PM EDT
Manufacturing output ended up higher in the last full quarter of the Obama administration than in the first quarter of the second Obama administration.
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Manufacturing In September
Thursday, October 17, 2019 4:55 PM EDT
Production, employment and aggregate hours are all declining, and all down relative to recent peak.
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The Yield Curve Has Dis-Inverted. Are We Safe Now?
Wednesday, October 16, 2019 4:44 AM EDT
The recession began (as dated by NBER) in December 2007.
In this article: IEF, IEI
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“More Signs Of Contraction – When Will The GDP Turn Negative?”
Sunday, October 13, 2019 11:15 PM EDT
Weakness in commodity prices, and the ongoing decline in interest rates, have all joined the chorus of signals calling for an economic contraction.
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Capital Goods Imports And Equipment Investment
Sunday, October 13, 2019 8:16 PM EDT
The last time we saw equipment investment declining was 08Q1; and capital goods imports in 08Q3. And we all remember 2008 ...
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