Menzie Chinn | TalkMarkets | Page 40

Menzie Chinn

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin
Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues. Menzie received a PhD in economics from the ...more
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Predictions – Oil Prices And Recoveries And Recessions
Wednesday, February 23, 2022 5:33 AM EDT
As you hear many definitive predictions flying around, think about the sources as you consider their plausibility.
In this article: OIL, UCO
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Russia EMP Watch
Tuesday, February 22, 2022 10:29 PM EDT
One way to assess external financial stress is to look at exchange market pressure (EMP).
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Would Pumping More Natural Gas In America Have Countered Russian Pressure?
Tuesday, February 22, 2022 2:07 AM EDT
Once one sees the relative magnitudes of flows, one can see why price equalization would be unlikely.
In this article: UNG
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Interpreting Macroeconomically A War Scenario, Graphically
Sunday, February 20, 2022 5:30 PM EDT
Most of the discussion of the macro implications of an expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine presumes elevated oil prices. This makes sense for the short run. However, if oil prices rise sufficiently, they will kick the economy into a slowdown.
In this article: BNO, OIL
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Unanchored Or Not? (Inflation Expectations)
Friday, February 18, 2022 4:00 PM EDT
If expected inflation is 3% on average over the next 5 years, and 1 year expected inflation is 3.1%, then implied expected inflation over the years between 1 and 5 is going to average 3%.
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Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-February
Thursday, February 17, 2022 4:26 PM EDT
Implied food services sales declined in January, perhaps reflecting omicron’s impact.
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Wells Fargo “Pressure Gauge” For Supply Chain Pressures
Thursday, February 17, 2022 9:57 AM EDT
In short, the fever may be starting to break, particularly as goods demand has cooled and allowed for some domestic shipping measures to catch up.
In this article: WFC
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Russia, FX Reserves And External Pressures In The Event Of War
Tuesday, February 15, 2022 11:49 PM EDT
Russia’s degree of financial openness is lower as of 2019, 0.48 compared to 0.72 in 2014, according to the Chinn-Ito index, so the authorities might be better placed to stem such flight.
In this article: RSX
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Inflation Expectations At 1 Year Horizon
Tuesday, February 15, 2022 4:04 AM EDT
Economists’ expectations rise, while household measures trend sideways.
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Interest Rate Forecasts – Survey Of Professional Forecasters February Survey
Monday, February 14, 2022 4:19 AM EDT
Even before the Thursday’s CPI release, forecasters had upped their short term rate forecasts, along with long term rate forecasts..
In this article: TLT, SPTL
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Risk And Uncertainty Before The Open
Sunday, February 13, 2022 10:29 PM EDT
The Economic Policy Uncertainty index rose in tandem with the VIX over the weekend, which is unusual.
In this article: VIX
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Uncertainty And Risk Measures
Saturday, February 12, 2022 1:55 AM EDT
If Russia were to invade Ukraine, all bets are off on macro and financial forecasts.
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Market Expectations And The CPI Release
Friday, February 11, 2022 2:12 PM EDT
While this yield curve flattening suggests market expectations of deceleration, it needs to be kept in perspective. The current spread is about the same as it was in March of 2021.
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Inflation In January 2022
Friday, February 11, 2022 5:34 AM EDT
You’ll hear lots about “records”, which are accurate but focus on y/y inflation.
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Expected Inflation Over The 12 Months
Wednesday, February 9, 2022 3:00 AM EDT
All measures — even those typically upwardly biased — indicate slower inflation over the next year.
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BLS Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment – ADP, Consensus, Revisions
Saturday, February 5, 2022 7:01 AM EDT
ADP private nonfarm has not tracked BLS private nonfarm very well in levels; and not in differences either, in recent months.
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