Menzie Chinn | TalkMarkets | Page 3

Menzie Chinn

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin
Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues. Menzie received a PhD in economics from the ...more
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33 to 48 of 1555 Posts
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GDP And Treasury Yields In The Administration Forecast
Monday, March 11, 2024 8:40 PM EDT
Both the CBO and the Administration forecast higher 10 year Treasury yields than economists in the SPF.
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The Employment Situation Release And Business Cycle Indicators For February
Friday, March 8, 2024 3:00 PM EDT
January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside, at +275 vs. +198 thousands consensus.
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Biden-Trump: Some Economic Comparisons
Friday, March 8, 2024 12:45 AM EDT
GDP, employment, manufacturing, debt, unemployment, etc.
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LP Derived IRFs For Disasters On GDP
Thursday, March 7, 2024 2:40 AM EDT
If one thought that climatological disasters would increase in frequency with global climate change, then one can infer larger and larger overall economic losses.
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Year-On-Year Change In Federal Debt To GDP Or Potential GDP
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 6:08 PM EDT
Using the counterfactual potential GDP as estimated by CBO does not change the picture substantively.
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Business Cycle Indicators Plus Monthly GDP. And Heavy Truck Sales
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 12:40 AM EDT
Monthly GDP declines 7.1 ppts m/m annualized. Let's take a look at a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
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Some Pictures Of Federal Debt
Tuesday, March 5, 2024 5:53 PM EDT
The largest percentage point of GDP increase in Federal debt takes place under Mr. Trump’s administration.
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Some Cost Implications Of Elevated Frequency Of Extreme Events Associated With Global Climate Change
Monday, March 4, 2024 11:50 PM EDT
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits snarks that I’m worrying about having to wear shorts in Madison on Sunday, when it hit 70 degrees. Just to clarify, global climate change has real implications.
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Divergence In Interest Rate Projections
Monday, March 4, 2024 7:53 PM EDT
CBO projection and SPF mean forecast diverge, by nearly a percentage point in 2024.
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Business Cycle Indicators, End-February 2024
Thursday, February 29, 2024 10:20 PM EDT
Personal spending comes in at consensus, personal income above. This article lists a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
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GDP, Est’d GDO, GDP+
Wednesday, February 28, 2024 8:42 PM EDT
In Q4, final sales to private domestic purchasers (which some observers take as a better measure of momentum) is 2.8% q/q AR, compared to GDP growth of 3.2%. Hence, momentum in aggregate demand seems strong.
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The UK In Recession? Expected Or Unexpected?
Saturday, February 24, 2024 2:10 AM EDT
With two quarters of GDP decline in the UK according to the current vintage of data, it’s reasonable to ask if the UK is in recession. ONS discusses the limitations of using the two-quarter rule of thumb here.
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CFNAI For January, WEI For Mid-February
Thursday, February 22, 2024 9:35 PM EDT
Economic growth is slightly below the trend.
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Fed Funds Vs. Spreads In Recession Prediction
Thursday, February 22, 2024 4:42 PM EDT
The probit regression on the Fed funds has a pseudo-R2 of 0.07, while that on the spread has a pseudo-R2 of 0.27.
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Other Metrics For Evaluating Recession Onset And The “Technical Recession” Of 2022H1
Wednesday, February 21, 2024 4:11 PM EDT
While GDP and GDO decline in 2022H1, GDP+ which is aimed to hitting the eventual level of GDP grows consistently over the 2022H1.
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Recessions Defined And (Maybe) Predicted
Monday, February 19, 2024 8:10 PM EDT
Since most of my lecture notes have migrated behind a gate, I thought I would share some teaching material that some readers might find of interest
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