Lance Gaitan | TalkMarkets | Page 2
Editor at Dent Research
Contributor's Links: Economy & Markets
Lance Gaitan graduated from Franklin University in Columbus, OH with a degree in Finance. After graduating and working as an auditor for an insurance administrator as a number of years, attained his securities license and then went to work as a broker for a small firm. In the mid-1990’s ...more

Articles

Latest Posts
17 to 32 of 65 Posts
Yields Explode, Jobs Don’t
“Normalization” is a smooth-sounding word. But it happens with moves like last week’s spike in Treasury yields.
Start The Trade War Without Me…
The September Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index came in at 59.8, lower than August’s 61.3 and below the 59.9 forecast.
The Fed Makes No News
The Fed is expected to hike rates again in December. But, if housing continues to weaken and that spreads to other parts of our economy, another hike could be the catalyst for a big downturn.
Trump, Treasurys, And You
Headline CPI came in at 0.2% against an expectation of 0.3%. “Core” CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 0.1% versus a consensus estimate of 0.2%.
Bullseye!
According to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the U.S. economy is doing just fine.
Guided By Stars? Really?
If there were any lingering doubts the Federal Reserve intends to boost its benchmark interest rate by another quarter point next month, Chair Jerome Powell settled them last Friday.
Buckle Up For Volatility?
Stocks have struggled to make new highs in recent weeks. What’s going on with the economy?
Treasury Yields Break On Through To The Other Side
Trade wars between the U.S. and other countries continued to dominate the headlines. But these disputes haven’t moved markets all that much.
So… What Will The Fed Do Next?
If the economy weakens sooner rather than later, inflationary pressures will recede, wage growth will falter, and the Fed probably won’t stick with its plan to hike rates twice more this year.
Tariffs Lead To Trade War
Year over year, core inflation was up 1.8%, as expected. These data points didn’t cause much of a stir in the market.
Yields Are Crashing
When long-term Treasury yields started to climb mid-month and closed at a high of 3.24%, I didn’t see fundamental evidence to suggest that higher inflation was on the way.
Inflation: Mission Accomplished
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditure price index (the PCE price index), was up 0.2% month over month, as expected.
Is Inflation Moving Higher? Does It Matter?
The bond market isn’t worried about either the economy overheating or inflation taking off. In fact, we’ve yet to see much evidence of consumer inflation whatsoever.
Threats And Reality
Treasury bonds will move when trading capital moves in and out of risk assets like stocks into the safety of bonds. But, recently Treasury yields were pretty steady during all of the recent volatility in stocks.
Is Inflation Finally Moving Higher?
Consumer inflation has been stubbornly low and not climbing to the Fed’s 2% target, while wholesale and producer prices are moving toward 3%.
Fed: Mixed Messages
Two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve decided to hike rates again. This was no surprise. What was surprising, however, was the subsequent drop in long-term rates and the further flattening of the yield curve.
17 to 32 of 65 Posts