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Dollar’s Ride Is About To End
5 years ago

Interesting but am not convinced. I don't follow Japan closely but against a developed world basket if currencies the USD looks pretty good to me. It's had a big run given that EUO has gone from $17 to $20 in the past couple of months so probably needs a rest.

The US economy may not be surging but overall the US prospects appear better than many, possibly even China in the short term. Euroland is still structurally screwed up and while the EUR has had a great decade as a currency I wonder about it from here (at least relative to the USD.)

A USD/EUR of $1.15 or so feels right. Maybe a little lower. I think $1.40 is an upper band and $1.05 a lower one. I don't often do anything with currencies but a few months back got long EUO and will stick with it as long as the US appears to be better off than other developed economies.

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