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David A. Stockman is the ultimate Washington insider turned iconoclast. He began his career in Washington as a young man and quickly rose through the ranks of the Republican Party to become the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White ...more

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The Delusions Of MAGA
The Donald took to some bragging during yesterday's annual tax filing moment assuring America's oppressed taxpayers that happier times beckon. In fact, he insinuated that MAGA is not just a slogan.
The March Labor Market Update: Feebleness And Malfunction
The labor force hasn’t grown because the economy hasn’t. It really is just that simple.
Not Your Grandfather's Trade War: Wall Street's Mindless Complacency, Part 3
If Trump ends up going the full monte on $150 billion of Chinese goods at a 25% levy, it will generate a windfall opportunity for foreign (and domestic) suppliers far greater than the $38 billion value of the tariff itself.
Not Your Grandfather's Trade War: The Revenge Of Bad Money, Part 2
The effect of central banking's bad money has been to preternaturally bulk up China's industrial economy and hollow out America's.
Not Your Grandfather's Trade War: The Revenge Of Bad Money, Part 1
If China goes down hard the global economy cannot avoid a thundering financial and macroeconomic dislocation.
It's The Trump Slump---But Don't Blame The Donald!
The first five quarters of the Trump Economy will have generated an average real GDP gain of $102 billion per quarter. Then again, during the previous three years (2014-2016) the quarterly growth rate was $99 billion per quarter.
Crazy Time All Around
What's really crazy is that at Elon Musk's currently claimed run rate of 200,000 vehicles per year, the company is losing about $10,000 per vehicle sold.
The S&P's 200-DMA: Why It Ain't No Maginot Line
For the last five years the S&P 500 has been dancing up its ascending 200-day moving average (200-DMA), bouncing higher repeatedly whenever the dip-buyers did their thing.
The Donald's Blind Squirrel Nails An Acorn
As the third great bubble of this century has accelerated towards its blow-off top, the robo-machines and momo traders have turned absolutely rabid, thereby enabling Bezos to go flat-out berserk in pursuit of growth at any cost.
The GOP's Fiscal Surrender: Why A "Yield Shock" Is Baked Into The Cake
The U.S. Treasury is fixing to sell the staggering sum of $294 billion in bills, notes and bonds this week, and it's a holiday-shortened week at that.
Who Needs Wall Street When You Can Have A Monetary Unicorn?
The single most important price in all of capitalism is the interest rate----and at all points on the maturity curve. And the single most important truth about honest interest rates is that they must be discovered by markets.
$21 Trillion And Counting: Fed Misdirection And Powell's Powder Puff Presser (Part 4)
The Fed's massive balance sheet expansion under QE destroyed the historical federal funds market long ago.
$21 Trillion And Counting: Forget The Dot Plots - It's QT, Stupid! (Part 3)
One of the worst ills of monetary central planning is that it has given rise to a laughable auxiliary of Wall Street economists who pontificate upon the entrails of the Fed's Dot Plots.
$21 Trillion And Counting: Why Deficits Didn't Matter During The Age Of Monetization, 1987-2017 (Part 2)
For the past 30 years fiscal deficits have been a big financial nothingburger because the Fed and other central banks gutted their sting.
$21 Trillion And Counting: Why This Time The Fiscal Wolf Is Really At The Door
That didn't take long. The $20 trillion national debt marker was crossed on September 8th, but it only took another 186 days to vault over the $21 trillion level last Thursday.
Goldilocks, R. I. P. (Part 3)
The first law of Bubble Finance is that stock market crashes trigger recessions, not vice versa. That stands your grandfather's macroeconomics on its ahead, yet the casual chain from which it arises is straight forward.
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