Danielle Park, CFA | TalkMarkets | Page 2
Portfolio Manager
Contributor's Links: Juggling Dynamite
Portfolio Manager, attorney, finance author, a regular guest on North American media. Danielle Park is the author of the best selling myth-busting book “Juggling Dynamite: An insider’s wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts,” as well as a popular daily ...more

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Insolvencies Leaping As Credit Demand Slumps
Business insolvencies are rising globally, and Canada is seeing twice the G7 average.
Mortgage Renewals Driving Shelter Inflation And Slower Economy
Years of easy money and housing speculation have left Canada’s economy between a rock and a hard place.
Inflation Retreating But Shelter Remains The Problem
Canada’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in softer than expected at an annualized rate of 2.9%, down from 3.4% in December and 8.1% from the cycle peak in June 2022.
Bad Loans Mount In ‘Greatest Real Estate Crisis Since The Financial Crisis’
The credit cycle is alive and well. But credit cycles typically move with multi-quarter time lags, and that’s longer than the attention span of most.
Too Many Payments, Too Little Income
In the fourth quarter of 2023, 7.7% of US auto loans transitioned to delinquency on an annualized basis (New York Fed data)—the highest rate in 13 years.
High Home Insurance Rates Driving Away Would-Be Buyers
A wave of new multifamily residential projects are coming online as migration slows and high mortgage rates weigh on housing demand.
China Exporting Deflation To The World
Since China entered the World Trade Organization in December 2001, US producer prices have tracked up and down with China’s Consumer Price Index.
Thoughts From The Front Line Of Commercial Real Estate
As Meta and Amazon further fan animal spirits in the tech sector, the melt in commercial real estate is spreading through the economy and financial system.
Re-Steepening Of The Yield Curve Signals Rising Unemployment And Deepening Bear Markets
The US 10-2-year Treasury yield spread (via YCharts below) has moved from a deep inversion at 108 bps last July to -14 bps today. This process is known as re-steepening.
Real Rates Rise After Central Banks Stop Hiking
Well-documented policy lags suggest that central banks have done more than enough to reverse the inflationary impulse over the next 12 to 24 months.
China Canary Warns About Global Economy And The Downside To Euphoria
Chinese stock prices have lost money in the 16 years since 2007 and are now back near 2005 levels.
Yield Curve Signals Recession In 2024
The US 10-year Treasury yield has been below the 3-month yield since November 2022 (14 months and counting).
Canadian Home Prices And Rents Amid Much Needed Mean-Reversion
​​​​​​​Canadian home prices are retreating. In previously hot areas, properties are selling up to 20% below 2022 prices, but nationally, the average sale price was just -11.4% in the latest quarter.
Employment Cycling Down
Unemployment spikes as recessions begin, but before that, early warning signs are fewer job openings and a shorter work week. The latest December jobs report showed spreading cyclical weakness.
Outlook Weakening Under Equity Market Optimsm
January US Empire Manufacturing reading this morning was -43.7, much worse than the -5 estimated and much weaker than during the 2008 financial crisis/great recession.
Rate Cuts Come As Demand-Driven Economy Slows
The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023 found that 40% of Canadian companies were experiencing a slowdown in sales.
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