Daniel Lacalle | TalkMarkets | Page 3
PhD Economist, Fund Manager
Daniel Lacalle is a PhD in Economy and fund manager. He holds the CIIA financial analyst title, with a post graduate degree in IESE and a master’s degree in economic investigation (UCV).

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The European Energy Crisis May Be Back Soon
The energy crisis in Europe remains, and the problems of security of supply and affordability of the system persist.
Optimism About Inflation May Be Premature
Markets are pricing a rapid decline in inflation and the end of central bank policy normalization. However, there are challenges ahead that we must consider.
Making You Poorer To Control You; Honest Money Is The Key To Freedom
The middle class in all developed economies is disappearing through a constant process of erosion of its capacity to climb the social ladder.
Why US Citizens Should Not Accept 3% Inflation
The recent University of Michigan survey’s reading of one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% in July from 3.3% in June.
U.S. Consumers Are Suffering In A Less Than “Robust” Economy
Massive government spending and currency printing have left a much weaker labor market and poorer citizens.
Money Supply Slump Spells Private Sector Recession
The entire burden of the monetary collapse and rate hikes is falling on the shoulders of families and small businesses, while large corporations and governments are virtually unaffected.
Global Economic Surprise Plummets As Eurozone Enters Recession
Investor sentiment is clearly bullish. The CNN Fear and Greed Index for June 18, stood at 82, which signals “extreme greed”. This is a drastic optimistic move after closing at “greed” (56) a month before and “extreme fear” (17) only one year ago.
Stocks Discount Too Much Easing And Optimism
Complacency seems to be taking hold of market participants because the latest leg up has been driven entirely by multiple expansions.
Global Debt Soars Again
Global debt levels soared by $8.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, climbing to $305 trillion, nearly the record high set in the first quarter of 2022.
Lifting The Debt Ceiling Is Not A Social Policy
United States debt to GDP is now 123.4% and the risk of losing confidence in U.S. Treasuries as the lowest-risk asset is exceedingly high.
Long Term Inflation Expectations Reach 12-Year High
According to the University of Michigan, inflation expectations index for 5-30 years reached a 12-year high of 3.2 percent. At the same time, the consumer sentiment index declined to 63.5, compared to a pre-pandemic high of 300.
European Banks May Be Riskier Than U.S. Ones And Regulation Will Not Solve It
The biggest risk for European banks is not deposit flight or investment in tech companies. It is the direct and uncovered connection to sovereign risk.
The Fed May Be Killing The Private Sector To Save Government
Curbing inflation requires a significant reduction in the money supply and aggregate demand. However, if government deficit spending is left untouched, the entire burden of normalizing monetary policy will fall on families and businesses.
Destruction Of Capital And Central Banks
Inflation in assets inevitably leads to a burst of bubbles. In the period when central banks were glad to see limited consumer price increases despite large increases in the money supply, they created massive inflation in assets.
OPEC Cuts May Lead To A Crisis
The recent decision by OPEC to extend production cuts has raised concerns about the potential impact on the global economy. While the move could benefit oil producers in the short-term, it may also have unintended consequences.
A Credit Crunch Is Inevitable
The question is not when there will be a credit crunch, but how large and for how long it will be.
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