David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 11
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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Market Volatility ETF Portfolios 1Q 2018 Review: Equity Premium
The US stock market had a long overdue correction in the first quarter, a response to the concern that the market had become overvalued in the raging post-election bull market.
First-Quarter 2018 Munis: Challenging
The first quarter of 2018 was a wobbly one for municipal bonds. Supply, as we know, was taken from this quarter and moved up to December of 2017 in order to beat the tax bill.
There Is An Old Saying
There is an old saying: “You can lay all the economists end to end and they will still not reach a conclusion.”
The Threat Of A Damaging Trade War
The Trump administration is raising fears of a possible trade war, a development that is unsettling markets around the globe, upsetting some of our closest allies, and causing great concern.
Winners And Losers From Global Trade
In a grand effort to change the subject of the political discussion from Russia to something else, President Trump fired the opening shots in a new trade war.
A First Look
Chairman Powell made an appearance this week before both the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee to discuss monetary policy and the state of the economy. How did he do?
The Classic Dupont Model
I still expect an S&P 500 Index above 3000 by decade’s end, and we still believe the disaggregation of the classic DuPont model has merit today, given the permanent nature of the tax code changes.
Vexed By VIX? Ask Pravit Chintawongvanich
Many market agents seem vexed by the VIX. Their recent lessons include a dramatic spiking of volatility, the reactionary pricing of an exchange-traded note (ETN), some forced liquidation, and a blisteringly fast correction in stock prices.
Eurozone Economy Robust Despite Equity Market Correction
Eurozone equity markets have declined in step with global markets in a widely expected market correction. While there has been some recovery in the first two days of this week, it is not yet clear that the correction has run its course.
Piggy Bank
One of the characteristics of a struggling republic is the inability to separate its central bank’s resources from the fiscal largesse of the federal government.
Politics Threatens The Fed
Political shenanigans and influence pose a continuing threat to central bank independence, and the outlook in the US is worsening for the Fed’s independence. Is that adding to market volatility?
Bond Market Hiccup
The bond markets have experienced a hiccup in the first part of this year, with the 10-year bond rising 45 basis points in yield, to 2.85% from 2.40%, and the 30-year bond rising 37 basis points in yield, to 3.11% from 2.74%.
Market Violence & Interest Rates
Fierce forces at work on interest rates… or are we just seeing a mild adjustment? There is no way to know. We are referring to US Treasury interest rates on bills, notes, and bonds.
Inflation And The Fed
There is not a great reason for the inflation target to be precisely 2%. The Fed’s mandate is ‘price stability.’ If ‘price stability’ has to be translated into a number, one might pick 0%, rather than 2%.
Trade, Dollar, Trump
Is it any wonder that markets have been whipsawed by this mixed message about the world’s reserve currency from the president and the Treasury secretary of the United States?
Potential Fed Vice Chairman
Reports are that John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, has been targeted as a potential candidate for Fed vice chairman.
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