Christopher Vecchio | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Sr. Currency Strategist at DailyFX
Contributor's Links: DailyFX
Christopher Vecchio is a senior currency strategist at DailyFX. He has been trading equities since 2004 and forex since 2008. Christopher has consulted multi-national firms on FX hedging and has lectured at Duke Law School on FX derivatives trading. He focuses on both fundamental and ...more

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Central Bank Watch Overview: BOE & ECB Interest Rate Expectations Update
More monetary policy tightening is on the horizon for the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
FX Week Ahead - Mexico Inflation Rate; German Inflation Rate; US Inflation Rate; China New Yuan Loans; UK GDP
The second week of August sees a much leaner economic calendar – there are less than ten ‘high’ rated data releases and events.
Weekly Fundamental Euro Forecast: September ECB Hike Odds Stay Elevated
The euro had a mostly positive week, gaining ground against six of its seven major counterparts. The top performing EUR-cross was EUR/JPY rates, which added +0.87%, reversing sizable losses earlier in the week.
Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Rates Outlook - Tuesday, Aug. 2
The euro has been sliding for the better part of the past two weeks, plagued by two main issues: the European Central Bank attempting to wrestle inflation pressures while preventing bond market fragmentation; and growing stagflation concerns.
FX Week Ahead - RBA Meeting; New Zealand Jobs Report; BOE Meeting; Canada Jobs Report; US NFP
The first week of August sees a typically busy economic calendar, with a global focus after last week’s US-centric offering.
FX Week Ahead - Australia Inflation Rate; US Durable Goods; Fed Meeting; US GDP; Eurozone GDP
The 2Q’22 Australia inflation rate (CPI) report will give the Reserve Bank of Australia all the more reason to hike rates aggressively in the near-term.
Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: July Fed Meeting In Focus
The US dollar fell last week, posting its worst weekly performance in two months with a loss of -1.33%. The two largest components of the dollar gauge led the way, with EUR/USD rates climbing +1.27% and USD/JPY rates dropping -1.75%.
Central Bank Watch: BOC, RBA, And RBNZ Interest Rate Expectations
Retail trader positioning suggests that AUD/USD and NZD/USD rates have a bullish bias, while USD/CAD rates have a bearish bias.
Euro Forecast: Positives Few And Far Between – Setups For EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD
None of the major EUR-crosses suggest that the lows are in just yet, from a technical perspective.
FX Week Ahead: Eurozone Economic Sentiment; UK GDP; US Inflation Rate; BOC Rate Decision; Australia Jobs Report
The Bank of England’s concerns about UK growth will soon be realized, as the upcoming UK GDP report is expected to show no growth for the three months through May.
Central Bank Watch: Interest Rate Expectations, Fed Speeches Update
Recent US Dollar strength is less about what the Fed may do and more about problems facing other currencies.
Gold Q3 2022 Forecast: Fundamental Outlook Weakens
As anticipated in the Q2’22 gold forecast, the main catalyst that drove gold prices higher in Q1’22 – the Russian invasion of Ukraine – proved to be a short-lived catalyst. The net-result: gold prices erased all their gains from Q1’22 in Q2’22.
Growth And Inflation Fears May Have Peaked
As bad as US equity markets have been in 2022, Chinese equity markets have had it much worse since early 2021.
Euro Forecast: ECB Reveals Anti-Fragmentation Measures – Setups For EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD
Per the IG Client Sentiment Index, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD rates have bearish biases while EUR/GBP rates have a mixed bias.
Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: Fading Rate Hike Odds Bode Poorly
With Fed rate hike odds beginning to retreat, the US dollar fell for the first time in four weeks, dropping by -0.26%. EUR/USD rates added +0.61% while GBP/USD rates gained +0.44%. The decline in US Treasury yields weighed on USD/JPY rates.
Central Bank Watch: BoE & ECB Interest Rate Expectations Update
The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 150-bps through 2022.
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