Callum Thomas | TalkMarkets | Page 24

Callum Thomas

Founder of Topdown Charts
Contributor's Links: Topdown Charts
Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven ...more
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Global Equity Valuation Charts
Wednesday, November 8, 2017 5:54 AM EDT
If it has felt like global equities have done well this year that's probably because they have.
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Are US HY Credit Spreads "Too Low"?
Monday, November 6, 2017 3:33 PM EDT
If you think S&P 500 PE ratios are too high, you probably also think that US High Yield credit spreads are also too low. But what is "too low" and from a timing standpoint, how should we think about it?
In this article: HYG
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ChartBrief 163 - Key Charts On US Margin Debt
Sunday, November 5, 2017 7:58 PM EDT
NYSE Margin Debt is an important indicator for US equities as it both reflects sentiment and tracks the amount of leverage and buying power in the market. Thus it is interesting to note that US margin debt reached a new all time high in September.
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Stock Market Sentiment Surges
Friday, October 27, 2017 4:27 AM EDT
The seemingly straight-line march upward in the S&P500 has triggered a rise in bullish sentiment as a great migration is underway from neutral sentiment to bullish sentiment.
In this article: SPX
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Passive Investors Beware Of Lopsidedness
Thursday, October 26, 2017 4:58 AM EDT
A curious trend has emerged within one of the world's major equity benchmarks: the S&P 500. As passive or index investors should be well aware, their portfolios will change over time as the index changes.
In this article: SPX
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The Fed, Inflation, And Full Employment
Wednesday, October 25, 2017 4:42 AM EDT
The unemployment rate in relation to NAIRU is indicating tight capacity in the jobs market, with independent verification from the small business and consumer confidence surveys.
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Implied Correlation And SKEW
Wednesday, October 18, 2017 4:36 AM EDT
The SKEW index has been on an uptrend, reflecting rising demand for tail risk hedging as the market heads higher, with spikes reflecting the swings in investor sentiment.
In this article: SPX, VIX
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Is The Unemployment Rate "Right"?
Tuesday, October 17, 2017 8:43 AM EDT
The unemployment rate is right - as confirmed by consumers and small business. In time this will lead to more rapid wage inflation and means more stimulus removal (aka tightening) by the FOMC.
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China And Reflation
Monday, October 16, 2017 3:05 PM EDT
Chinese PPI inflation picked up further in September, accelerating to 6.9% (6.3% previous, and consensus). It forms part of a trend that we have seen in China towards higher generalized inflation.
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Emerging Economies Go From Doom To Boom
Wednesday, October 11, 2017 9:00 PM EDT
On a macroeconomic cycle basis, EM economies look set to outperform developed markets.
In this article: EEM
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Bond Volatility At Rock Bottom
Tuesday, October 10, 2017 4:25 PM EDT
Implied volatility in the US bond market is exceptionally low.
In this article: VIX, TYX
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Maturity Creep - A Key Trend For Global Bond Investors
Monday, October 9, 2017 10:06 PM EDT
I was looking through some statistics on the global government bond markets.. A couple of key metrics and trends struck me as a big shift in the risk and return make up of global government bond markets has taken place.
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Global Equity Breadth Check
Monday, October 9, 2017 3:47 AM EDT
We're seeing ongoing divergence in Global Equities country breadth on a 50-day moving average basis (i.e. higher highs in the MSCI ACWI vs progressively lower highs in the breadth indicator).
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Weekly Sentiment Survey: Bond Bears And Equity Bulls
Sunday, October 8, 2017 6:50 PM EDT
This article reviews the data from the latest weekly sentiment survey we conduct over on Twitter. The survey measures respondents' equity and bond positioning/view - differentiating between bullish or bearish for technical or fundamental reasoning.
In this article: VIX
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Critical Signals In PMI-Bond Yield Divergences
Wednesday, October 4, 2017 4:54 AM EDT
The closing of the gap between the PMI and bond yields could find some assistance from quantitative tightening - although the alternative view is that the bond market is right.
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TED, HY Credit, VIX
Tuesday, October 3, 2017 2:34 PM EDT
After a false alarm and subsequent calming, the TED spread is starting to stir again. Interestingly, it stands in contrast to the VIX and HY credit spreads.
In this article: VIX
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