Callum Thomas | TalkMarkets | Page 23
Founder of Topdown Charts
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Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven ...more

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Global Equities Have Bad Breadth
Global equities can do little wrong lately, with falling volatility, improving earnings, and an almost straight-line upward march in the MSCI All Countries World Index.
China Property, PPI, And EM Equities
Typically producer price inflation in China follows property price growth. This is for a number of good reasons such as the commodity intensive nature of property construction, and flow-on demand.
Fed Hikes, What's Next
The Fed hiked again in its December meeting [and in the background continues to wind down its balance sheet by reducing principal reinvestment at a progressive pace.
When Does "So Good" Become "Too Good"?
Conditions look about as good as it gets - economic optimism is at a fever pitch. The issue is both European and Japanese economies have central banks which are easing full-tilt.
Expect More Volatility?
Global equity volatility visually looks to be in the process of bottoming with the average implied volatility index across the major global equity markets appearing to make a rounding bottom.
Not Dot Com
Not Dot Com: in absolute or relative terms, tech sector valuations are a far cry from the dot com bubble.
Economic Noise And The S&P500
The US Economic Noise Index has hit strong positive levels, consistent with the rally in the S&P500, but at this point it is on watch for any signs of rolling over (not yet).
5 Fascinating Charts That Put The Rise Of Bitcoin In Perspective
Whether it's a bubble, or viral adoption, or something else, I think most would agree that the rise of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general has been simply astonishing.
What I Learned About The S&P500 From Studying The US IPO Market
The US IPO market shows a familiar ebb and flow to the stock market price cycle. Studying the trends in IPO activity can yield interesting sentiment signals and provide extra context on the overall market environment.
December Seasonality And The "Santa Claus Rally"
The "Santa Claus rally" refers to the tendency for the S&P500 to do well in December, and specifically the last part of December.
Institutional Investors Are Selling Global Equities Into Strength
At a global level institutional investors were apparently net-reducing exposure to risky assets for the second month in a row; pulling in their horns as the risk vs reward outlook becomes more complex.
Europhoria - What Hot Economic Sentiment In Europe Means For Markets
The latest round of PMI data for Europe reflected what we're seeing across the economic sentiment indicators for the Eurozone: i.e. the strongest economic sentiment readings since 2000.
The Extraordinary Plunge In Stock Market Volatility
The crunch-down in S&P 500 volatility is extraordinary, albeit it is a familiar sign as this metric often trends down as a new bull market gets underway - certainly at least in the initial phase.
Bonds Through The Cycle
The topic of the yield curve is one that has been coming up a lot lately, particularly as the 10s minus 2s spread has dipped to the lowest point since just prior to the financial crisis.
Do You Believe The Oil Hype?
The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East is fluid, to say the least, and this fluidity has helped the black fluid undertake what is looking like a potential upside breakout as the news/noise levels remain high. But do you believe the hype?
Global Consumer Sentiment Update
While leading and lagging at different times both consumer sentiment and manufacturing confidence have risen to strong levels; reflecting a strengthening global economic cycle.
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