Bob Hoye Blog | Exceptional Speculations: Part 2 - BOB HOYE - PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS - JANUARY 11, 2018 | Talkmarkets

After completing a degree in Geophysics, Bob worked in mining exploration. Inspired by the mistake of making money on his first trade, he joined an investment dealer. Historical research led to metals forecasting for large mining companies. This segued into providing independent research to ... more

Exceptional Speculations: Part 2 - BOB HOYE - PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS - JANUARY 11, 2018

Date: Saturday, January 13, 2018 9:11 PM EST

BOB HOYE - PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS - JANUARY 11, 2018

Exceptional Speculations: Part 2

We have been around too long to be wholly confident. However, the main trend is up and
as with previous great bull markets, the completion will be anticipated by change in the
credit markets. Which continue supportive of the boom. The recent turn to brighter action
in industrial commodities has also been positive.

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Transports and Banks also continue positive. Indeed, they are both making new highs.

However, the most fabulous speculations, as eternally recorded in the Bitcoin and Pot

Stocks, reached technical excesses within the targeted time window – the-Turn-Of-The-
Year (TOTY). And got hit. Pot Stocks soared until yesterday, with WEED almost

doubling in only three weeks from 19 to 36. In June, the stock was at 6.58.
The shocking discovery of suddenly unsupportable positions started on the day we
published our first Exceptional Speculations on December 21st. Bitcoin (GBTC) took a
big hit from 3523 on December 19th to 1155. 1 The bounce made it to 2488 on the 26th
,
which reached the ChartWorks objectives on dynamics. Wednesday’s CW again puts the
action in perspective with the initial failures of earlier great speculations. Similar patterns
and dynamics occur in any price series from the South Sea stock in 1720 to Western
Union in 1873 to Radio Corporation of America in 1929 to silver in 1980 to the Nikkei in
1989 to Qualcomm in 2000.

Each was a different vehicle but the completion of each bubble had much in common. In
bulk commodities, the feature has been that each product is fungible. Each unit of, for
example copper, is interchangeable with another unit. The next step is that intense
speculation itself is fungible, which provides the characteristics common to speculative
climaxes.

The latter three speculations, silver, Nikkei and Qualcomm set their peaks in the TOTY.
And it seems that the Bitcoin and Pot Stocks are completing in the same time window.
We will have to think about tempus fugit and time fungibility.

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