Avi Gilburt | TalkMarkets | Page 3
ElliottWaveTrader
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Avi is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room and member forum focusing on Elliott Wave market analysis. Avi emphasizes a comprehensive reading of charts and wave counts that is free of personal bias or predisposition. A lawyer and ...more

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Is It Time To Give Up?
In attempting to avoid any “emotions” of concern I feel for the GLD chart, allow me to explain what I am seeing in the GDX and silver charts which cause me to retain a strong bullish perspective in those two charts.
A Thanksgiving Thought For Metals Investors Who Do Not Appreciate “Alternative” Analysis
There is absolutely no holy grail to investing or trading. Rather, we only deal in probabilities when working within non-linear markets.
Damn Manipulators
As the metals market dropped today, I am quite certain the evil manipulators have become the talk of the town once again. No one speaks of them when we are rising, because that is how the market is supposed to move (cough, cough).
What Do The Fireworks In Metals Mean?
For now, the metals complex seems to be providing us with a consolidation near the highs.
What Goes Up, Must Come Down... But, Sometimes, Only A Little
Expecting a standard pullback in the metals and miners may leave you in the “dust”. I have been warning those that are waiting for the standard .500-.618 retracements that the train may leave the station without them.
Why Is This Correction Different From All Other Corrections?
The market can take its normal course and continue in this corrective action for another several weeks, as most seem to expect. But I would rather you be on your toes and look for the potential break out.
The Metals Complex Is On The Edge Again
For weeks the GDX has been on the edge of a breakout, while showing signs of a corrective pullback we would rather see first. But when the metals finally turn bullish, retracements often are very shallow, as they don’t let the masses into the market.
Has The Miner’s Correction Finally Begun?
While the GDX did not strike its upside resistance, it may have come close enough to consider it having topped. The question now is how do we view the coming “correction.”
Corrective Action Continues – But, A Rally May Still Be Seen
Currently, we are likely within a corrective wave two off the lows in GLD and GDX, and the action is quite difficult. But, the major issue I am now seeing is that silver is still showing signs that it may be setting up for lower lows.
Metals Market Signaling Lower
I am now focusing on seeing lower levels in the metals complex, with the potential for lower lows still possible, but with much greater probability in silver.
Even The Bulls Are Expecting A Pullback
While many may be looking for a certain pullback in the metals, and possibly even lower lows, I am unable to consider that potential until the support levels cited in this article are broken.
Market Assumptions Are Wrong Again
This past week, much was written about expectations regarding the ECB actions. The wide consensus was that the Euro was going to tank and the metals would tank with the Euro. However, that is not exactly what we saw.
Are Metals “Topping”?
While we prepare for the potential topping in the GLD and GDX in their 5th waves of wave I off the lows, pullbacks from this point forth should be looked upon as long term buying opportunities.
Can Silver See A Lower Low Without Gold And GDX?
Right now, neither silver, nor gold nor GDX have confirmed long term bottoms in place based upon this 5 step process. But, this past week, silver has placed itself in jeopardy of heading to lower lows in the setup it developed.
What Are The Probabilities For Lower Lows In Metals?
How about if we speak a little more realistically about what is happening in the market, as we still need to look for confirmation that the bull market has returned.
Can The Metals Continue Their Strength To Prove Bullish Again?
It seems many have lost interest in gold. While we are still seeking confirmation that the long term bottom has, in fact, been struck, this is further anecdotal evidence in support of that perspective.
33 to 48 of 63 Posts