Arthur Donner | TalkMarkets | Page 22
Economic Consultant
Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ...more

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U.S. Productivity Is Improving, But Still Remains Very Weak
There is a tight correlation between long-term productivity growth and the growth in per capita real income.
U.S. Inflation Is Close To Target, And Inflationary Expectations Are Quite Stable
Even though actual inflation seems to be increasing slowly, the Dallas Fed’s review of consumer survey data and market-based indicators of inflation expectations suggest that the inflation outlook is quite stable.
U.S. Inflation Worries Are Being Fueled By Tight Economic Capacity And Rising Labor Costs
There are several compelling reasons for expecting price inflation to increase in the year ahead, particularly because the economy has been so strong, and the labor market seems incredibly tight (i.e. a 3.9% unemployment rate).
The U.S. Job Market Continued To Tighten In April; Still No Signs Of Wage-Push Inflation
In many respect, Donald Trump inherited a Goldilocks economy in macroeconomic terms, “not too hot, nor too cold, but just right”.
The U.S. Retail Sales Increase In April Points To A Stronger Growth In The Second Quarter
Retail spending was quite sluggish at the start of 2018 but picked up sharply in March and April.
Euro Area Growth Moderated In The First Quarter, Unemployment Continued To Fall
Euro Zone's real GDP grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2018. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, the Euro economy expanded a healthy 2.5%.
Japan’s Economy Wobbled A Bit In The First Quarter
As to the short-term situation, Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2018, suggesting to some that the economy has reached a peak after its best run of expansion in decades.
Canada’s Industrial Production Reaches All-Time High In February
Canada’s economy is growing rather slowly but nevertheless, some sectors are close to full capacity. In February, for example, Canadian industrial production soared to an all-time high.
Paul Krugman’s Compelling Case For Sustaining Demand Using Aggressive Economic Policies
Economic austerity policies, which supporters argue can restore stability to an unbalanced economy, often generate real damages long after the austerity program has ended.
Access To Credit Drying Up In The United Kingdom Implying Slow Growth Ahead
The credit impulse in the United Kingdom turned sharply negative in the first quarter of 2018. In other words, the slowing in the credit impulse foreshadows slower British economic growth.
U.S. Consumer Spending Weakened In The First Quarter Of This Year, But The Economy Remains Strong
The U.S. economy slowed substantially in the first quarter compared to the previous nine months when the economy posted much more rapid growth. However, the Q1 weakening is expected to be only temporary.
Although Financial Markets Are Choppy, The Global Economy Is Still Quite Robust
According to a recent IMF report, global real GDP is expected to expand by a further 3.9% in 2018 and then in 2019. The expectation of continued growth in both the advanced and the emerging market economies is very credible.
Canadian Firms Are Keen To Invest, But Are Worried About Future Trade Barriers
Canadian business opinion relating to the short-term outlook was fairly upbeat in the first quarter of 2018.
The U.S. Dollar, Shrinking Central Bank Holdings And The Global Economy’s Strength
The USD rout continues. The trade-weighted dollar’s depreciation in Q1 was the fifth in a row, with a cumulative 9% drop since the end of 2016.
The U.S. Trade Deficit Surged To A 9-1/2 Year High In February 2018 - Is Trump Aware?
The American economy is booming and is sucking in imports at a record level. The U.S. typically earns a surplus on its services trade account and records deficits on its goods trading.
U.S. Employment Growth In March Was Surprisingly Weak, But Hourly Earnings Rose Sharply
Non-farm payrolls increased by only 103,000 in March, sharply lower than the 326,000 gain in February. Nonetheless, job growth in the first quarter of 2018 was stronger than it was in the same quarter last year.
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