Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more


E Canada’s Job Market Recovery Will Be Painfully Slow
Recent monthly employment gains overstate the strength of the economy.
E An Unconventional US Recession, An Unconventional Recovery And The New Economic Normal?
The pandemic and the lockdowns decimated the US economy in the second quarter of this year.
E Canada’s Economy Is In Trouble; Job Market Recovery Will Be Painfully Slow
In the final analysis the key propellant behind the Canadian economy will be how well the US and the global economy recovers, as well as how competitive Canadian industries can be.
E The CBO’s Pessimistic But Realistic Outlook For The US Economy
These latest CBO projections clearly illustrate that the destructive effects of the pandemic and the shutting down parts of the US economy is not limited to a single year.
E The US Economic Recovery Is Slowing And Potentially Reversing, America Is Facing A Slow And Painful Economic Recovery
A number of recent economic indicators are suggesting that the US economic rebound has been losing steam in July. While the speed of the US economic rebound in May and June was quite rapid, nonetheless recent indicators are now less promising.
E US Personal Income, July 2020
Personal income was well supported during the early phase of the pandemic. The personal income surge may partially explain strong equity markets.


Latest Comments
An Unconventional US Recession, An Unconventional Recovery And The New Economic Normal?
28 days ago

Thanks for your comments.

The US has always had a problem dealing with its poor.

The problem became more exaggerated by recent events, including the covid recession.

IMF's Gloomy Global Economic Projections
2 months ago

I agree the outlook is very risky.

thanks for your comment

We Are Trapped In A Phase Of Major Unknowns
2 months ago

I beg to differ. The risk we face is deflation, not inflation.

Where Has All This Printed Money Gone To?
3 months ago

NIce column

Your point on MV=PY is instructive. Could it be the defn of money has changed. Really all you can say is that the velocity of money, conventionally defined, has fallen.

But what about money substitutes, which move far beyond the conventional defn.?

A related point. It is often not realized that when the demand for money falls, Ceteris Paribus, the money supply shrinks. (the money stock is determined at the intersection of the supply and the demand curves)

That is, the money supply is a function of both the demand and the supply of money.

Your conclusion on the macro effects are right on.

Coronavirus And Trump's Clever Inadequacy
6 months ago

Great series of insights Gary.

All the best,


The Natural Rate Of Interest Is An Esoteric Concept That The Fed Pays Attention To
7 months ago

thanks Gary

Good charts or tables should easily tell a story.

That's why I like using charts.

Serious Problems For Germany’s Manufacturing Sector, Auto Production Restructures In The Direction Of Electric Cars
8 months ago

HI Gary,

Thanks for your comment.

No doubt Trump can make Germany's problems worse.

But 2020 is an election year. My political guess is that he would want to avoid another trade dispute at this time. (After all, the China phase 1 was hardly a win for the US)

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