Andre Gratian | TalkMarkets | Page 16
Owner at Market Turning Points
When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of mylife, and I frequently spend 8 or more hours per day in ...more

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Beginning A Topping Pattern?
After reaching the stated P&F price projection for the two-month rally which began at 1810, SPX started a minor decline which, so far, has retraced some 40 points and has found support at 2043.
SPX Strength Is Deceptive
In my analysis, I believe that I have made a strong case for an imminent top for the SPX. Even if it is correct and the market does reverse from this level, we’ll have to see how much weakness does develop and if the primary trend has resumed.
A Chink In The Rally?-Market Overview
Next week will be key in deciding if we have an intermediate top in place, or if SPX reaches for the higher counts mentioned in italics in Market Overview. Cycles may not cooperate fully until later in the week.
Pushing The Envelope
SPX looks poised for a minor pull-back. That may be all we get unless we can retrace below 2020, in which case a more important top may be in place. In spite of the continued market strength, we are correcting the recent bull market trend.
Current Position Of The Market-Severe Correction Underway
Intermediate and long-term P&F counts have been accurate the great majority of the time and should be taken seriously. If the index continues to rise beyond 2043, the premise that we are in a “bear market” would begin to face a challenge.
Max. Projection 95-100% Complete - Distribution Should Start
The structure of the rally is turning out to be an ascending wedge which, besides being close to reaching its full count potential, has also retraced .618 of the previous decline from 2116, another reason to expect the rally to come to an end soon.
Is The Bear Rally Ending At A 50% Retracement?
The last short-term top formed a H&S pattern which gave a projection that was almost filled by the following decline.
Phase Correction In Progress
The rally that developed on the SPX last week was enhanced by bullish news about oil and, assisted by massive short-covering, it spurted 120 points in only four days.
Is A Phase Low In Place?
On Friday, SPX acted as if it had made a double bottom at the 1810/1812 level. The rally which ensued after the reversal extended beyond a simple bounce, although the daily volume was not all that impressive.
At Important Support
It looks as if SPX concluded its a-b-c correction in an uptrend when it reached 1947 early last week. Since then, it has retraced about 75 points down to the important 1868-1872 support zone which was formed by the August/September 2015 lows.
A-B-C Correction Unfolding
The indicators are still solidly up with no sign of negative divergence, and they will require a few more days to reach a point where they are ready to reverse.
Counter-Trend Rally
With oil deciding to end its decline in climactic fashion on Wednesday, SPX​ went along for the ride and ended its decline in a similar manner. Since then, it has been in a powerful counter-trend rally which is approaching at least a short-term top.
Current Position Of The Market
Last week’s stock market action brought more confirmation that a major correction started which some will label a bear market. There is strong evidence that both in time and in price, this correction will continue for the foreseeable future.
Nearing A Phase Target
Last week, SPX​ finally broke the mighty 2040 support level decisively, came out of its bullish short-term channel (from the August low of 1867), and was down 126 points for the week.
Current Position Of The Market-More Correction Ahead
During the next few weeks, the NYSE and TRAN – which give a better picture of market consolidation – could complete their corrections, stabilize, and lead to the upside to complete primary wave V of the bull market. This is the preferred scenario.
Bear Market Is On Hold For Now
If the SPX makes a top at Thursday’s high and starts a decline which drops below 2094, the bears will regain control of the downtrend which started at 2116. In fact, failure to do so could shift the bias to the upside.
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