Adem Tumerkan | TalkMarkets | Page 3
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Contributor's Links: Speculators Anonymous
My name is Adem Tumerkan and I’m the analyst and editor at Speculators Anonymous. I’m a macro-speculator and a former market analyst that got tired of the mainstream financial industry (full details below). I’m LONG volatility, optionality, holistic thinking, cycles, and history — I’m SHORT ...more

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33 to 48 of 82 Posts
‘Corporate Cannibalism’: How Monopoly Powers Are Widening Inequality
Two charts show a huge dilemma in the economy: an absence of new public firms being created while older firms are concentrated into fewer and fewer hands.
In China Bond Defaults Continue To Soar As Credit Tightens
After years of binging on cheap debts, an over-reliance on investment driven projects with steadily diminishing returns, and a rapidly aging population – China’s economy has grown increasingly fragile.
‘The Inflation Illusion’ – And Why I’m Betting On Deflation Going Forward
If there hadn’t been deflation last year in 2020 due to the pandemic, then the headline CPI in April 2021 would’ve only shown a 2.9% year-over-year gain (vs. the 4.2% inflated rate it really was).
The Corporate Bond Market Is Far More Fragile Than Many Realize – Here’s Why
According to a recent S&P Global report – there are so far 24 new fallen angels worldwide in 2020 (the most since the 2015-16 slowdown).
Blowing Up: The Italian Debt Crisis, The Experts That Missed It – And What’s Next
We know that when bond yields go up, the bond prices go down. And whoever owns all these depreciating bonds – mostly owned by banks – will suffer... Now the real question is: what’s the contagion from this Italian debt crisis?
Drowning In Debt: Delinquencies Are Surging And It’s Only Getting Worse
After the shocking release of used car prices collapsing most since 2008, and subprime auto loan delinquencies at a 22 year high - credit card delinquencies are now sharply ticking higher. What's going on?
The Bond Market Is Calling The Fed’s Bluff – Things Aren’t Looking Good
The FOMC's recent minutes explain why the yield curve continues towards flattening - then soon afterwards - inverting. Even with inflation running hot, Fed rate hikes, and balance sheet unwinding - the trend wont break.
Subprime Chaos: The Auto Bubble Is Bursting And It’s Worse Than 2008
After years of cheap debt, the Fed's rate hikes are making auto loans difficult to service. Sound familiar to mortgages in 2008?
Don’t Be Fooled By The Dollar’s Recent Rise – It’s Still Going Down Much More
The U.S. Dollar has been on a tear over the last few weeks. And many mainstream pundits are calling for the renewal of a dollar bull market.
Beware: These 3 Important Indicators Are Signaling Economic Problems Ahead
After studying these three important - yet little used- indicators. I expect earnings to underperform over the next 12 months. This narrative throws cold water in the face of the mainstream's 'growth' story.
Think The Economy Is Okay? Wait Until You See These 3 Charts
Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in Q4 2015, interest payments on the United States national debt has soared to 38%. Credit Card delinquencies are at levels not seen since 2008. And C&I loans have stalled out - what's next?
Flattening Yield Problem & Death By Low Volatility
We are definitely approaching a "Minsky Moment" after years of cheap debt and low rates. Markets are becoming more expensive and illiquid. Especially if the Fed attempts to unwind its bloated balance sheet. Time to tail-hedge?
The Bond Market Is Calling The Fed's Bluff
Tuesday the spread between the 5 year and 30 yields collapsed within 96 bips, less than 1%, of each other, for the first time since December 2007. Softening inflation, collapsing credit growth, and inverting yield curves are signaling a recession.
Odds Rising For Inverting Yields, Falling Stocks & Recession
After yesterday's CPI miss and retail sales dump, the Fed not only hiked but discussed unwinding their balance sheet. What did bonds do? Yields fell. When will stocks?
Dismal Data & Inverting Yields Signal A Recession
It's the Bond Market vs. The Fed. Bond markets signal recession but the Fed signals growth. The recent data is looking poor for 2017. The year-over-year loans for real estate, auto and commercial are all trending far lower.
Consumer Credit Flops And Why This Is A Big Problem
Yesterday the Fed released the consumer credit growth data for April missing economists expectations by 50% and represents the slowest growth in consumer credit since 2011. With GDP dependent on consumption, are we looking at an economic slowdown?
33 to 48 of 82 Posts