S&P 500 closed on a fine note and keeps nibbling at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only a weak hand that would be shaken out.

If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not throwing a spanner in the works… 10y over 2y yield relenting together with 3m yield going down, that would be most constructive for the bulls – still absent for now, and that‘s why this Q4 rally will fail in Q1 2023.

Opening today‘s article for everyone after Thanksgiving – thank you all for the honor of serving you!

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

The chart is still strong, and 3,958 shouldn‘t really come into danger – the time is to gather strength for the final 2-3 weeks of this year, and to run (higher). 4,040 getting out of the way, determines the speed and path of the upswing. 4,010s is the first line of support.
 

Credit Markets

The retreat in yields and general risk-on posture in bonds will continue even as today‘s premarket progress has been reversed, and then some. Bonds haven‘t peaked, and neither have cyclicals or tech within this bear market rally in stocks.
 

Gold, Silver, and Miners

Precious metals surely give an appearance of the lows being in, and now are in the process of making higher highs and higher lows. Note the often written about decreasing sensitivity to rate hikes and at times hawkish rhetoric – economic slowdown with the dollar getting challenged, that‘s an elixir that copper also likes
 

Crude Oil

Oil bulls better clear back above $80 again, but the short-term chart technicals look slated against it. I‘m willing to sit out the setback – while combined with precious metals, copper, and stocks, this portfolio should win the day together.

More By This Author: