Why Jerome Powell’s Only Option Is Inflation

The single biggest issue for the world today is that there is too much debt in the financial system. Some eye-water facts:

Globally the debt to GDP ratio is 322%. 

Amongst G-7 nations, the numbers are striking.

  • The U.S.’s Debt to GDP is 106%
  • Germany’s Debt to GDP is 61%
  • Japan’s Debt to GDP is 196%
  • The United Kingdom’s Debt to GDP is 85%
  • Canada’s Debt to GDP is 89%
  • France’s Debt to GDP is 98%.

The only one that looks remotely decent is Germany and that’s because the country has been aggressively paying down its debt. During the 2008 crisis, Germany’s debt to GDP skyrocketed to 82% as its economy collapsed and it went on a Debt binge.

Put another way, of the seven largest developed nations, only one of them has a debt to GDP below 85%… and that is very likely to change during its next major recession.

Again, the world has too much debt. No major nation is an exception.

Now there are three ways to deal with excessive debt.

1)  Pay it off through growth or fiscal restraint.

2)  Default/ restructure.

3)  Attempt to inflate it away by debasing your currency.

Of these, the only viable option is #3.

This sounds like a complicated idea, but really, inflating the debt away means money printing.

Think of it this way. Let’s say you owe $1,000 in debt. Now imagine that the dollar loses 50% of its value. You still owe $1,000 in debt, but because each unit of debt is worth so much less, your REAL cost of the debt is only $500 in today’s terms.

This is the only option major nations have today. And it’s one that policymakers LOVE to use as the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed.

Consider the following…

In response to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, central banks printed $12 trillion in new money from 2008 to 2012.

They’ve already printed HALF of this in six months ($6 trillion and change) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. And when you include stimulus programs, the number swells to $15 trillion.

This is going to unleash an inflationary storm that will send inflation hedges like gold and silver (and their miners) THROUGH THE ROOF.

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