Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down Another 2K - Thursday, June 30

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending June 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted week moving aver initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 229,000 to 233,000. The 4 week moving average was 231,750, an increase of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,000 from 223,500 to 224,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 0.9 percent for the week ending June 18, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised up by 0.1 from 0.9 to 1.0 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 18 was 1,328,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 16,000 from 1,315,000 to 1,331,000. The 4 week moving average was 1,319,500, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 4,000 from 1,310,000 to 1,314,000.

This morning's seasonally adjusted 231K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 2278K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

Unemployment Claims since 2007

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Unemployment Claims

Here's a copy of the above chart, but zoomed in, so the COVID spike isn't as prominent. We'll be adding a few more of these "zoomed in" looks in the coming weeks.

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data.

Nonseasonally Adjusted 52-week MA

Here's a look at a sample of year's claims going back to 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

Initial Claims to the CLF

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