Yield Curve Steepens But Recession Risks Haven't Faded

The yield curve has steepened considerably in the past month. Some think it means recession risk has diminished.

Yield Curve Debate

A longer-term picture will put the steepening in perspective.

10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield

The yield curve has not inverted this time. But what if it doesn't. There is no universal law that says the yield curve will invert before a recession. Look at Japan for proof.

With so many eyes on the yield curve flattening, perhaps it doesn't.

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