WTI Slumps As Postponed OPEC Conference Trumps Crude Inventory Surprise

While all eyes are focused on Vienna and the OPEC+ meeting, inventory data will likely not be completely ignored following Tuesday's surprise API-reported crude build.

With refinery utilization surging, there’s a danger of an oversupply of gasoline, says Bob Yawger, futures director at Mizuho Securities USA. “The market needs to see a draw”.

API

  • Crude +5.36mm (-900k)
  • Cushing +1.44mm
  • Gasoline +3.61mm
  • Distillates +4.32mm

DOE

  • Crude -7.323mm (-2mm exp) - biggest crude draw since July
  • Cushing+1.729mm
  • Gasoline +1.699mm (+1.75mm exp)
  • Distillates +3.811mm

The 10-week trend of crude builds is over as DOE reports a surprisingly large 7.3mm barrel draw (the most since July) but at the same time builds were notable at Cushing and for products...

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Most of the surprise crude draw came from the Gulf Coast - the biggest weekly decline in the region since December 2012.

Oil production growth took a small breather last week after a magnitude 7 earthquake in Alaska struck on Friday, affecting oil producing and transportation assets in the region. Alyeska Pipeline Service shut the 800-mile Trans Alaska Pipeline System for seven hours while Hilcorp Energy temporarily shut some of its operations, which include oil platforms in Cook Inlet.

WTI traded between $50.50 and $51 as we moved into the DOE data (as OPEC pessimism dominated after Saudi Arabia's energy minister backed a smaller-than-expected supply cut) then right before the data, this headline hit - *OPEC WON'T HOLD PRESS CONFERENCE AFTER MEETING TODAY: DELEGATE. However, the big draw prompted some buying in futures...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Finally, here is Bloomberg's latest summary of where things are in Vienna:

  • For now, closed-door talks among the ministers are still ongoing
  • OPEC may propose a production cut of 1 million barrels a day and seek extra contributions from Russia and other non-OPEC members
  • But there appear to be sticking points. Some countries are seeking exemptions from the cuts
  • We're told we may get no communique or press conference today and it'll all be wrapped up after a meeting with OPEC+ countries tomorrow
  • Libya's representative at the talks left the secretariat while the meeting continues, saying he had to catch a flight. Unusual

And now this...

  • OPEC won’t hold a press conference after its closed-door meeting ends Thursday in Vienna, a spokesman for the organization says.

And WTI is holding its losses down over 4%.

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