Will The Market Go Up Or Down From Here?

The answer is yes. It will go up or down from here.

Whenever the market has a large setback (this one is 7% so far, but it happened quickly and may or may not be finished) many of us feel a responsibility to tell our readers not to panic.

So, here's my advice: don't panic. (I hope to provide more useful advice below.)

To the extent that history is a guide, the market will be higher sometime in the future but no one knows when that will be.

It could be Friday.

On the other hand, stocks took 25 years to recover from the Great Depression and 16 years to recover from multiple financial crises beginning in 1963[1]. It took only six years for the market to recover from the 2007 sub-prime mortgage crisis.

When you read how quickly the market recovers from big losses, it's important to note that a retiree's portfolio is not the market index. It probably took longer for a retiree to recover from those losses than it took the market because she was selling stocks to pay bills during that period. At the other extreme, someone in the accumulation phase might have recovered sooner than the market if they were not spending but instead contributing additional savings during those years.

Saving during your working career is like periodically throwing more money into your retirement boat. Spending from that portfolio during retirement is like owning a leaky boat.

Three more pieces of advice.

It is important to ignore the advice of those who say this is the beginning of a much larger market decline because they can't know; they're only guessing.

It is equally important to ignore the advice of those who say this is a great buying opportunity because they're guessing, too.

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