Why Blog?

I voted in my NY primaries. Then I got held up by hoards of schoolchildren blocking the exits from the basement polling place; I think they might also constitute a fire hazard without older people on the stairs. Hence the blog is late. Sorry.

It is New York Fashion Week but I have no idea if the new modes will sell.

There is a huge full moon expected tonight but it may rain on the lunar parade; luckily we saw a fat moon two months ago at the Stratford Westfield shopping mall.

I do not have any insight into what makes Vladimir Putin tick or how to deal with ISIS, Islamic State, or whatever it is called now.

I am stumped about the cure for Ebola virus, and by the way also for Marburg virus.

I have no idea if we should buy Alibaba at the ipo even if the 40 Thieves are included in the deal.

Adrian Ash from www.Bullionvault.com (our advertiser) set my mind to rest about the new regime at the London Metal Exchange. LME changes affect only centralized forward price data distribution, not spot. Bullionvault is a site where you trade spot gold. Forward trading in London is marginal according to Reuters, accounting for only 5% of gold trading, mostly mining industry hedging. Adrian is head of research at www.bullionvault.com, in my opinion the easiest and cheapest way for Americans to own physical gold.

Another pre-subscriber wrote about finding my insight into political situations interesting, why he “devours” my free blog. SR adds:

“My investing history is another story. My family has a long history of trading which I fell into as a young man. I even became a licensed commodities broker.

“At 69 years of age I am looking to buy and hold quality dividend-paying stocks. I am basically going it alone and there is no one else I would even consider following.” But he isn't following me either.

Meanwhile KAJ writes that he plans to sign up “once the market dips.” Right after they ring the bell? Why do I blog?

Maybe I should copy Bill Bonner and Louis Navellier and launch a limited entry family trust to monetize the work I do.

More follows for those who read my blog to make money in stocks rather than for my insights or amusement. We have not one but two sells today and news from Australia, Britain, Brazil, Canada, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Israel, Dubai, Mongolia, and Ethiopia. Plus a company report.

*Abengoa (ABGB) today reported flat revenues and net income for H1 vs 2013 H1, with sales at euros 3.4 bn and net income of euros 69 mn, up all of 2%. However, operating results (cash flow) earnings before interst, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose to euros 695 mn, up 31% y/o/y and the backlog hit euros 48 bn, up over 11%. The Spanish renewable energy, biomass, and water desalination company spun out a yield subsidiary (ABY-Q) earlier this year, so the figures are not comparable.

Its sales went 39% to North America (comprising the US and Mexico); 25% to South America; 13% to Europe; and the rest to Asia and Africa.

Its best results came in its concession infrastructure business driven by new assets coming on and old ones performing strongly. The revenues in this segment rose 46% to eruos 346 mn and the backlog here hit euros 40.5 bn, up 12% but accounting for most of the backlog level.

ABGB had problems with its engineering and construction business which while producing high margins (17.7%) in H1 failed to produce good sales, as these fell 5% to euros 2.068 bn, in part because of currency factors and mostly because of cancelled projects (like Solana in Arizona). However this area also headed the backlog rise, up 16% to euros 7.67 bn.

*America Movil, AMX, the largest Latin American telcom firm, controlled by Mexican magnate Carlos Slim, is explorong a possible offer alongside Oi of Brazil for Tim Participações. This was confirmed by a spokesman for the Mexican company to Eduardo Garcia of www.sentidocomun.co.mx. Slim is the 2nd richest man in the world and loves a bargain. Oi is currently in the process of merging with Portugal Telecom, PT, which we loaded up on all summer long. Cash-short Oi wants to buy Tim from current owner Telecom Italia and hired the PTG Pactual investment bank in Brazil to help it. It is cash-short because the money for the merger PT was supposed to pay was temporarily (I think) lost in the bankruptcy of Banco Espirito Santo and its Luxembourg subs, including Rioforte, which held the PT stash.

Oi and Slim are not a shoo-in for nabbing TIM as Telefonica de España which bought Vivo from PT a few years ago proposes to increase its Telecom Italia stake which was opposed by Brazilian market competition regulators. So TEF proposed that it work together with a small Brazilian retail fixed telephone network, GVT (which stands for Global Village Telephones and is a sub of Vivendi, of France) to share out TIM assets to separate cable from cellular. AMX via its Claro network already controls about a quartr of Brazil's cellular business. It is required by Mexican reforms to cut its current 70% control of the Mexican market for fixed, cellular, and internet to below 50%. Brazil opportunities are bigger than Mexico's. It has only 69 mn cellphone subscribers, whereas Mexico already has 71.3 million.

Of course this development could enhance my wild gamble position in PT.

*Our first sell is Bombardier based on Financial Times writer John Authers' colomn a few weeks ago about wasteful spending is a reason for exiting stocks. BDRAF has taken two full-page ads in my daily reading material touting its C-series airplanes which have yet to make a maiden flight. Whom are they directed at? After the pounding the share got yesterday after analysts at Bank of Nova Scotia forecast that the single aisle plane would never make money (because delays meant airlines were buying other aircraft rather than waiting) the adds are a tactical error. Sell BDRAF.

*Our second sell is also Canadian and also based on FT writing. IAM Gold is one of the companies operating in Guinea affected by Ebola virus and the resulting transport freeze. Sell IAG.

*Reuters reports that GlaxoSmithKline is under US investiagation for corruption in sales by its consumer healthcare unit which may violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) which prohibits bribery. It appears that even OTC meds were sold illicitly in China, other foreign countries and possibly also the US and the UK. When I worked for the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, my boss, Sen. Clifford P. Case (R-NJ), the senior Republican, was instrumental in getting the FCPA passed. I recall that a predecessor of GSK, SmithKline that was, a NJ company, lobbied against FCPA. GSK.

*Hikma Pharma of Jordan which is listed in Dubai and London today fell 3.33% in London trading to GBP27.3 taking its p/e ratio to under 18. No idea why.

*Allana Potash is developing a possible second line of fertizer in addition to its potassium chloride (potash) finds in Ethiopia. It is exploring for kainitite, a natural mineral which consists of potash with magnesium sulphate, which is found in Saxony, Germany. It has now engaged Ercosplan Ingenieurgesellschaft to assess kainite mineral resources in Danankhil via a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) which can be used to make kaninite used to fertilize chloride-sensitive crops like tobacco, fruits, veggies, and vines. Kainitite commands a price $125 or more per metric tonne higher than standard potash. The new line will be developed in parallel with potash and can add value for ALLRF and its shareholders.

*No less that three articles in www.seekingalpha.com today herald the heart failure med coming soon from Swiss Novartis. One by an MD sets a target price close to the current level of NVS stock and the others predict rockets. Of course we told you first. But why does the editor of the daily stock advisory run 3 articles about one stock? NVS is Swiss.

*Origin Energy Down Under successfully priced a euros 1 bn hybrid capital issue to be swapped into A$1.4 bn half of which will count as equity under rating company rules. The money will be used to buy into two Browse Basin exploration permits off the northwest coast of Western Australia. The hybrid was hedged into A$. The subordinated loan is for 60 years and can be redeemed by OGFGF at years 5 and 10 and any year after 11. It pays interest at 4% for the 1st 5 years and thereafter under complex terms. In years 6-10 it will cost Origin 7.91%/yr. It counts as debt for account and taxes as there is no conversion. Browse Basin is Santos-Conoco Phillips territory and they found significant gas condensate there in Aug. not far from their largest find from 2012, called Crown. The area is the target for a gas liquefaction plant as they start producing. Woodside Energy is building an offshore floating LNG plant near Boome along with offtake partners CPC Corp (Taiwan), PetroChina, and PowerGas (Singapore). There are 2 further slots. I assume OGFGF is buying because it wants LNG business.

*Our basis in Oz share Benitec has now (finally) been calculated by e-trade in my account at $4.40. We bought before the conversion of the Australian shares to BTEBY ADRs.

*Motley Fool Singapore ran an article about how to make real money in Singapore-listed equities based on Bloomberg data. No 3 in its ranking was Global Logistic Properties, which proudced a total 3-yr return of 78.8%. However, note that GBTZF's YTD return in S$s was only 2.4%. Ascendas India Trust was not rated. Keppel Group (KPELY, a conglomerate) had a 3-yr return of 44.9% and a YTD return of 0.6%.

*Vale told Royal Bank of Canada analysts that the outlook for nickel is very positive and this has implications also for iron ore prices. They cited low ore inventories for both. Making VALE's nickel side more appealing are developments in Indonesia which is China's chief nickel supplier. There Vale is close to getting its licensed renewed and it may sell locally about 20% of its Indonesia nickel business. Separately, Vale contracted with ABB to install electrical and automation systems to sort ore at an iron mine in northern Brazil.

*Because its dividend is only payable Oct. 2 to shareholders of record Aug. 6, our Reckitt Benckiser share is being swung up and down by worries about Scotland independence and the pound sterling. RBGLY is not alone. It closed yesterday down 2.74%.

*Despite the bank being under the control of the United Kingdom, the Scottish selloff has also hit the Royal Bank of Scotland preferreds today. This is silly because among his other sins, Alex Salmond was an instigator of RBS's mindless expansion into bankruptcy in 2008 and he certainly doesn't want to have to deal with the consequences as head of an independent Scotland.

*Heavy directionless trading also afflicts Banco Santander, which reports in euros but has its largest European bank outside its homeland in Britain. SAN.

*Putin's talk of Nova Rossiya worries Finland, which under the Czars was a Russian Province. Baltic Sea fear has hurt not only Nokia (NOK) and Yandex (YNDX) but also Sampo OyJ (SAXPF).

*Ecopetrol was rated BBB by Fitch Ratings for its $1.5 bn senior unsecured 12-yr issue to finance capex. The rating is similar to that of Colombia which owns 88.5% of EC despite what Fitch calls its “aggressive growth strategy.”

*Mongolia Growth Fund is soaring, up 12.7% in US$ and 13% in loonies so far today. No news I can find but it may be formally converting to a REIT. There is an inaccessible press release about a new medical facility building in Ulaanbataar which is unlikely to resonate with investors.

Trading alerts

I sold  Bombardier at $3.37/sh. This is only a half sale as we already sold half earlier. BDRAF.

I sold  IAM Gold at $3.46. IAG.

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