What’s Ailing Mindbody?

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There are two ways this analysis could be wrong: 1) if revenue growth accelerates dramatically and 2) if gross margins expand dramatically. We did run #2 through the IV model all the way up to 80% gross margin which gets to an IV of $14/share in 2017. That's very little return over a two year period in exchange for 50% capital risk. Not a bet we would be willing to make.

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On a final note we can't hold a candle to those SEC filing sleuths at footnoted but buried in the S-1 is a puzzling and possibly scandalous line item regarding considerable expenses for "office repair, maintenance, building fixtures and other professional services" paid to related parties over the past three years of $130K, $216K and $554K in 2015. This appears to be a great growth business for someone but the person or parties are not named explicitly. We don't know who's getting the money but when combined with their extra ordinary G&A expense levels it casts another dim shadow on execution and shareholder focus.

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Nirvana 5 years ago Member's comment

Did you do a similar valuation for Shoppify $SHOP? This article seems too personal for some reason. SHOP, which went public with IPO last month is already up over 100%. IT's trading at Price to sales of over 24. MindBody, on the other hand after this 17% drop is trading at 4.2 times sales. Revenue is still growing over 42%, which is huge. Revenue will only accelerate from now now, thanks to the new cash infusion. SG&A expenses will be flat from now. Marketing cost will be flat from now now. According to public research, the market for this Niche MindBosy is 100 times. I am not kidding, 100 times. They got 42,000 business customers now, and 24 mil consumers active online with their system. Thats huge. This is a niche market, focused on health and wellness. $FITBIT will be a huge collaboration for them. The potential market is over 4.2 mil small business health and welfare companies. More health consumers will become active members to look for the community in one place, that is MindBody Online. This is huge. This is like LinkedIn. This is like Uber. There can be competition, but they have the first mover advantage, and huge brand value already built in. If I were a health and fitness business, I would like to pay $150 bucks monthly fee to get huge consumer access huge community access. Why would I change to someone else if I am comfortable using a Software which I spend only $150??? The revenue is recurring. Sales and Marketing costs are one time and will flat. Multiply 4 mil times $100 + Payment processing fees. This is over $500 mil monthly recurring rev opportunity. Even if they get 20% of this market in the next 3 or 4 years, it is over $100 mil Revenue every month, and over $1 Bil Rev a Year company in few years. Health and Wellness is a hot business now, and all the insurance and corporations and Fitbits and Garmins all will collaborate to cut health cost and improve livelihood.

I have no idea why you are bashing this on the first day after the IPO, that too after it is down 17%. I am sure this will bounce back hard on Monday. Nasdaq and the underwrites handled the IPO poorly. UBS, MorganStanly and CreditSuise are no small underwrites. They have option to buy to additional 1.1 mil shares. They will buy on Monday on open market. Look at Shoppify and see where and how they are trading. They have not made profit either. And Shoopify doesn't even have active 24 mil consumers on their syste, Only business customers.

Nirvana 5 years ago Member's comment

Why is spending 100k or 200k in a year to build office cubicles is expensive for an IT company?? You got no credibility. wow