E What Exactly Is The Fed Thinking? Avoid Catching Falling Knives

What too expect going forward? Investors and economists are all but positive rate hikes will continue:

As a contrarian, this author expects a rate cut before another hike.

Time will tell, but the US economic data is souring and its not getting better anywhere abroad either. The IMF is warning of iliquidity and potential international crisis which is worrisome. Who knows, these economists change their minds daily anyways.

But what usually goes up; must come down. And investors should steer clear of trying to catch a falling knife. Things will likely get worse before better.

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John Ayres 4 years ago Member's comment

Given the provable fact that there is no crystal ball and no one can predict anything in financial markets, what exactly are we doing here? The strategy in a perfectly random situation should be to not participate unless you enjoy a bet

Mark Friedmann 4 years ago Member's comment

You make an excellent point. That being said, I like a good bet, especially when I can improve my odds with some good intel.

Adem Tumerkan 4 years ago Author's comment

I think of it as more of a carefully approached speculation, similar to chess, about the only options the Fed has.

Recession is here this they need to cut/go negative/QE

Or they try to not embarrass themselves after touting how well the economy is doing, warranting a rate hike, and keep the hikes going to keep confidence in them - and plunge he economy into a great recession.

Either or both roads lead to the same path.