What An Inverted Yield Curve Means For Stocks, Currencies, Commodities, And Real Estate

Let’s look at how various markets react to yield curve inversions.

  1. S&P 500
  2. Gold
  3. Silver
  4. U.S. Dollar Index
  5. 10 year Treasury yield
  6. inflation-adjusted median sales price for New Homes (i.e. U.S. real estate)

What various markets do after the yield curve inverts

5 year – 3 year yield curve

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Here’s what the S&P 500 does next after the 5 year – 3 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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Here’s what gold does next after the 5 year – 3 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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Here’s what silver does next after the 5 year – 3 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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Here’s what the U.S. Dollar Index does next after the 5 year – 3 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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*Notice how the U.S. Dollar index has a tendency to fall 2 years later.

Here’s what the 10 year Treasury yield does next after the 5 year – 3 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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Here’s what the inflation-adjusted median sales price for New Homes does next after the 5 year – 3 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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5 year – 2 year yield curve

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Here’s what the S&P 500 does next after the 5 year – 2 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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Here’s what gold does next after the 5 year – 2 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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Here’s what silver does next after the 5 year – 2 year yield curve inverts for the first time in each economic expansion.

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