Weekly Unemployment Claims: 793K New Claims

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 793,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 33,000 from 779,000 to 812,000. The 4-week moving average was 823,000, a decrease of 33,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 8,250 from 848,250 to 856,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for the week ending January 30, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised up by 0.1 from 3.2 to 3.3 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 30 was 4,545,000, a decrease of 145,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 98,000 from 4,592,000 to 4,690,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,748,750, a decrease of 157,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 24,500 from 4,881,750 to 4,906,250. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 793K new claims, down from the previous week's upwardly revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 757K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

Unemployment Claims since 2007

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Unemployment Claims

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

1 2
View single page >> |
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.