Weekly Unemployment Claims: 779K New Claims, Better Than Forecast

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending January 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 779,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 35,000 from 847,000 to 812,000. The 4-week moving average was 848,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 18,500 from 868,000 to 849,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for the week ending January 23, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 23 was 4,592,000, a decrease of 193,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 14,000 from 4,771,000 to 4,785,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,881,750, a decrease of 120,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,750 from 4,998,000 to 5,001,750. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 779K new claims, down from the previous week's revised figure, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 830K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

Unemployment Claims since 2007

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Unemployment Claims

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

1 2
View single page >> |

Disclosure: None.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.