Weekly Investment Report

By Todd Campbell
Monday, April 7, 2014 6:38 AM EDT

Top scoring weekly returns:  Buy and Hold 1 Year

  • Utilities score best across our universe
  • Friday's weakness was in line with historical April trading trends


Last week we saw sector bunching around the average universe score, which is typical at inflection points. Scores have rolled to reflect the shift to Q2 seasonality, so watch sector and industry ranks closely over the coming weeks.
 
Heading into the week, utilities is the only sector scoring above average. Typically, utilities provide upside ahead of the summer peak demand season.
 
Consumer, industrials, and healthcare all score in line with the average universe score. Basics, financials, technology and services score below average.



The following chart breaks out score by market cap and sector. 

This next chart shows historical four, eight, and 12 week moving average scores. Historically, when the four week (blue line) is below the eight and 12 week moving average, risk reward isn't in your favor. Watch and wait for the line to move back above for maximum conviction.

This next chart shows April's historical trading pattern. It reflects the average return on each trading day of the month over the past 10 years. Historically, the first half of the month has been less rewarding as positions are locked in to pay taxes.  Five of the eight worst trading days of the month are in the first 10 trading days.

Utilities

The only sector to score above average this week is utilities. Utilities began perking up in our ranking in mid March when the average score for the group moved above the average universe score. The basket's strength coincides with typical Q2 shoulder month seasonal strength ahead of summer peak demand. The following chart shows average relative returns for the XLU by month. Over the last decade, average utilities returns have outpaced the SPX in every month of the second quarter.  Higher natural gas prices tied to inventory de-stocking supports spot electricity prices.


 

Top Scoring Stocks: 
 

LG CAP   4/3/2014 4 Week MA MID CAP   4/3/2014 4 Week MA
Symbol Sector SCORE SCORE Symbol Sector SCORE SCORE
BEST       BEST      
CSX SERVICES 105 98.75 FTR TECHNOLOGY 105 75
JNJ HEALTHCARE 105 67.5 ARLP BASIC MATERIALS 100 75
BKW SERVICES 105 97.5 NUVA HEALTHCARE 100 83.75
APH TECHNOLOGY 100 98.75 OUTR SERVICES 100 73.75
CLB BASIC MATERIALS 100 91.25 PNY UTILITIES 100 75
CVD HEALTHCARE 100 88.75 PRXL SERVICES 100 88.75
ECA BASIC MATERIALS 100 95 SIVB FINANCIALS 100 87.5
EIX UTILITIES 100 78.75 TFX HEALTHCARE 100 96.25
EQT UTILITIES 100 87.5 CRI CONSUMER GOODS 95 76.25
ESS FINANCIALS 100 92.5 CRZO BASIC MATERIALS 95 88.75
EW HEALTHCARE 100 91.25 EGN UTILITIES 95 72.5
GD INDUSTRIAL GOODS 100 91.25 R SERVICES 95 67.5
IDXX HEALTHCARE 100 81.25 SCI SERVICES 95 81.25
ISRG HEALTHCARE 100 90 AER SERVICES 95 72.5
MCHP TECHNOLOGY 100 106.25 GMED HEALTHCARE 95 92.5
MRK HEALTHCARE 100 81.25 ICLR HEALTHCARE 95 87.5
NEE UTILITIES 100 93.75 DEI FINANCIALS 90 71.25
ORLY SERVICES 100 87.5 HTLD SERVICES 90 96.25
PNR INDUSTRIAL GOODS 100 81.25 JW.A SERVICES 90 70
TDG INDUSTRIAL GOODS 100 91.25 LPNT HEALTHCARE 90 65
WEC UTILITIES 100 76.25 NEU BASIC MATERIALS 90 62.5
ENDP HEALTHCARE 100 80 NJR UTILITIES 90 66.25
TSN CONSUMER GOODS 100 95 ODFL SERVICES 90 76.25
ALXN HEALTHCARE 95 88.75 PDS BASIC MATERIALS 90 82.5
AXP FINANCIALS 95 76.25 POOL CONSUMER GOODS 90 83.75
BF.B CONSUMER GOODS 95 76.25 CPHD HEALTHCARE 90 68.75
CMI INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 76.25 DXCM HEALTHCARE 90 75
CPT FINANCIALS 95 76.25 AAN SERVICES 85 78.75
CVS SERVICES 95 90 AVA UTILITIES 85 73.75
DIS SERVICES 95 95 CAVM TECHNOLOGY 85 97.5
DOV INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 62.5 CNO FINANCIALS 85 93.75
DTV TECHNOLOGY 95 77.5 CPRT SERVICES 85 67.5
DVA HEALTHCARE 95 87.5 FLEX TECHNOLOGY 85 83.75
EMN BASIC MATERIALS 95 87.5 KRC FINANCIALS 85 82.5
EOG BASIC MATERIALS 95 76.25 NFX BASIC MATERIALS 85 60
FIS SERVICES 95 86.25 PTEN BASIC MATERIALS 85 78.75
GMCR CONSUMER GOODS 95 76.25 RES BASIC MATERIALS 85 66.25
HAL BASIC MATERIALS 95 88.75 ROVI TECHNOLOGY 85 66.25
HSY CONSUMER GOODS 95 87.5 TRAK TECHNOLOGY 85 92.5
ILMN HEALTHCARE 95 90 TXI INDUSTRIAL GOODS 85 65
LLL SERVICES 95 88.75 UPL BASIC MATERIALS 85 90
LLY HEALTHCARE 95 65 PODD HEALTHCARE 85 68.75
LO CONSUMER GOODS 95 92.5        
MDU INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 87.5        
MTB FINANCIALS 95 78.75        
NOC INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 87.5        
PPL UTILITIES 95 66.25        
PWR INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 73.75        
SLG FINANCIALS 95 87.5        
SNA INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 87.5        
STZ CONSUMER GOODS 95 65        
TWC SERVICES 95 72.5        
WFT BASIC MATERIALS 95 88.75        
XEL UTILITIES 95 80        
SMALL CAP   4/3/2014 4 Week MA ADRS   3/31/2014 4 Week MA
Symbol Sector SCORE SCORE Symbol COUNTRY SCORE SCORE
BEST       BEST      
GB HEALTHCARE 100 71.25 ICLR Ireland 95 82.50
SWHC CONSUMER GOODS 100 81.25 PSDV United States 95 96.25
VASC HEALTHCARE 100 92.5 WX China 95 70.00
ARTC HEALTHCARE 95 72.5 AZN United Kingdom 90 75.00
BDBD CONSUMER GOODS 95 83.75 NGG United Kingdom 90 76.25
ECOL INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 88.75 NVO Denmark 90 87.50
IPAR CONSUMER GOODS 95 76.25 ASMI Netherlands 85 71.25
MOV CONSUMER GOODS 95 63.75 DDAIF Germany 85 60.00
EXAM SERVICES 95 90 RYAAY Ireland 85 83.75
CMTL TECHNOLOGY 90 72.5 SFL Bermuda 85 81.25
CVCO INDUSTRIAL GOODS 90 68.75 SPRD China 85 85.00
DIOD TECHNOLOGY 90 96.25 GSOL Bermuda 80 75.00
HWAY HEALTHCARE 90 55 KONG China 80 91.25
TWI CONSUMER GOODS 90 71.25 OMAB México 80 61.25
ALIM HEALTHCARE 90 82.5 SIG Bermuda 80 90.00
CSII HEALTHCARE 90 75        
AMSG HEALTHCARE 85 53.75        
ANEN TECHNOLOGY 85 57.5        
DMND CONSUMER GOODS 85 75        
EPL BASIC MATERIALS 85 68.75        
FSS CONSUMER GOODS 85 77.5        
MED SERVICES 85 53.75        
MPWR TECHNOLOGY 85 82.5        
MTOR CONSUMER GOODS 85 68.75        
NLS CONSUMER GOODS 85 67.5        
SNHY INDUSTRIAL GOODS 85 88.75        
WMGI HEALTHCARE 85 58.75        
MACK HEALTHCARE 85 58.75        
PMC SERVICES 85 78.75        
SPNC HEALTHCARE 85 68.75        
ORB INDUSTRIAL GOODS 80 72.5        
PDLI HEALTHCARE 80 65        
PENX BASIC MATERIALS 80 88.75        
SAIA SERVICES 80 76.25        
SIMO TECHNOLOGY 80 66.25        
STFC FINANCIALS 80 85        
AMRI HEALTHCARE 80 75        
BSTC HEALTHCARE 80 78.75        

 

 

None.

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