Weekly Investment Report
Weekly Report
Top scoring weekly returns: Buy and Hold 1 Year
NOTE: Scores will shift to reflect Q2 seasonality this week. That shift is happening at an important point in time given the bunching of sectors around the average universe score. Typically, this bunching occurs near market inflection points as leadership shifts.
Only consumer goods score above average heading into the week. Industrials, financials, basics, services, and utilities all score in line with the average universe score.
Technology scores below average, while healthcare scores below average. Keep a close eye on this week's large, mid, and small cap ranking.
The following chart visualizes score by market cap. Small cap remains in distribution
Scores struggled to re-exert above the 8 and 12 week moving averages last week. Keep an eye on scores in next weekend's report to see what impact the shift to Q2 seasonality may have on the measure.
CONSUMER GOODS
Consumer goods is the only sector to finish the week above the universe's average score.
The following table breaks out market seasonality using ETF's as proxy. The market is entering into a period of rising risk/neutral seasonality with the SPY having gained in just 6 of the past 10 years, producing a 1.04% average and 0.73% median return for the period.
The next table breaks out those widely traded market, sector, and industry ETFs with the best record of posting gains in the second quarter. Muni's are best across bonds. Healthcare baskets are also typically strong performers, which makes the recent sell-off an even more interesting dynamic. Consumer and utilities are solid too. Overall, those with the best seasonality are defensive ahead of summer portfolio de-risking.
The worst seasonal ETFs are highlighted in this next table. REITs, which had robust Q1 seasonality, turn sour. Long bonds are typically poor performers (see Median return in particular).
You'll also notice that in addition to financials (XLF) being weak performers, so are the KBE, KCE, and KRE. The next chart maps out average return for the XLF relative to the SPY by month since 2003. April is historically its best month, followed by poor performance in May and June.
This last chart this week provides a seasonality refresher for major markets, mapping out average return by month for the SPY, MDY, IWM, and QQQ.
Top Scoring Stocks:
| LG CAP | 3/20/2014 | 4 Week MA | MID CAP | 3/27/2014 | 4 Week MA | ||
| Symbol | Sector | SCORE | SCORE | Symbol | Sector | SCORE | SCORE |
| BEST | BEST | ||||||
| MCHP | TECHNOLOGY | 115 | 108.75 | CAVM | TECHNOLOGY | 90 | 103.75 |
| OCR | SERVICES | 85 | 87.5 | CDNS | TECHNOLOGY | 90 | 103.75 |
| RIG | BASIC MATERIALS | 75 | 80 | TER | TECHNOLOGY | 90 | 98.75 |
| AMP | FINANCIALS | 100 | 97.5 | CNO | FINANCIALS | 85 | 98.75 |
| APH | TECHNOLOGY | 105 | 98.75 | FHN | FINANCIALS | 85 | 90 |
| AZO | SERVICES | 105 | 101.25 | HTLD | SERVICES | 85 | 98.75 |
| CF | BASIC MATERIALS | 100 | 98.75 | IRF | TECHNOLOGY | 85 | 101.25 |
| CHK | BASIC MATERIALS | 70 | 82.5 | ITT | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | 85 | 97.5 |
| CLR | BASIC MATERIALS | 100 | 98.75 | AB | FINANCIALS | 80 | 93.75 |
| CSX | SERVICES | 100 | 91.25 | CBL | FINANCIALS | 80 | 68.75 |
| GLW | TECHNOLOGY | 100 | 97.5 | CMC | BASIC MATERIALS | 80 | 83.75 |
| HAS | CONSUMER GOODS | 110 | 102.5 | CRS | BASIC MATERIALS | 80 | 75 |
| JPM | FINANCIALS | 75 | 85 | FLO | CONSUMER GOODS | 80 | 72.5 |
| MYL | HEALTHCARE | 105 | 101.25 | GCO | SERVICES | 80 | 95 |
| VRSN | TECHNOLOGY | 70 | 81.25 | LFUS | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | 80 | 92.5 |
| AGCO | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | 65 | 68.75 | MOH | HEALTHCARE | 80 | 87.5 |
| AGN | HEALTHCARE | 105 | 98.75 | OLN | BASIC MATERIALS | 80 | 87.5 |
| AON | FINANCIALS | 95 | 92.5 | SF | FINANCIALS | 80 | 93.75 |
| APC | BASIC MATERIALS | 65 | 76.25 | TEX | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | 80 | 92.5 |
| BDX | HEALTHCARE | 105 | 97.5 | TIVO | SERVICES | 80 | 83.75 |
| CELG | HEALTHCARE | 80 | 77.5 | TRAK | TECHNOLOGY | 80 | 97.5 |
| DD | BASIC MATERIALS | 95 | 91.25 | UPL | BASIC MATERIALS | 80 | 92.5 |
| DIS | SERVICES | 100 | 96.25 | WTFC | FINANCIALS | 80 | 88.75 |
| DO | BASIC MATERIALS | 65 | 70 | TFX | HEALTHCARE | 80 | 96.25 |
| ECA | BASIC MATERIALS | 100 | 93.75 | ||||
| ESS | FINANCIALS | 95 | 92.5 | ||||
| FOSL | CONSUMER GOODS | 65 | 72.5 | ||||
| FRT | FINANCIALS | 100 | 86.25 | ||||
| HCN | FINANCIALS | 85 | 82.5 | ||||
| KSU | SERVICES | 65 | 70 | ||||
| LNC | FINANCIALS | 95 | 92.5 | ||||
| LO | CONSUMER GOODS | 95 | 93.75 | ||||
| NVDA | TECHNOLOGY | 95 | 91.25 | ||||
| OI | CONSUMER GOODS | 80 | 86.25 | ||||
| OII | BASIC MATERIALS | 70 | 70 | ||||
| OTEX | TECHNOLOGY | 100 | 95 | ||||
| PETM | SERVICES | 80 | 80 | ||||
| PVH | CONSUMER GOODS | 65 | 75 | ||||
| SIAL | HEALTHCARE | 110 | 102.5 | ||||
| SWN | BASIC MATERIALS | 100 | 93.75 | ||||
| TSCO | SERVICES | 75 | 78.75 | ||||
| BKW | SERVICES | 100 | 97.5 | ||||
| TSN | CONSUMER GOODS | 100 | 93.75 | ||||
| SMALL CAP | 3/20/2014 | 4 Week MA | ADRS | 3/24/2014 | 4 Week MA | ||
| Symbol | Sector | SCORE | SCORE | Symbol | COUNTRY | SCORE | SCORE |
| BEST | BEST | ||||||
| CWT |
None.
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