Weekly Forecast: EUR/USD, Gold, WTI Oil(CL), S&P(ES), Dow(YM), Dax(FDXM)

(Video length: 00:26:19)

Time code
0:00 - Fundamental overview
0:18 - EUR/USD (Spot)
5:01 - GOLD (Spot)
10:27 - WTI Crude oil (CL)
16:11 - S&P 500 mini (ES)
21:43 - Dow Jones (YM)
23:48 - Dax (FDXM)

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
MAIN MARKET MOVERS
(Wednesday) FOMC Statement + press conference;
(Wednesday) Crude oil inventories;
(Friday) EU + US Manufacturing PMI.

WHAT TO EXPECT?
Powell will not say directly that the FED will decrease % rates or that the FED will be looking for further economic indicators. So traders will became calm and expect further economic signals – this will be a signal for strong corrections.

Oil inventories will continue to increase, as market totally oversupplied and oil price will continue downtrend, if we will not have war expansion in Oman bay;
PMI’s became sideways, so next news will be very important, as if PMI will fall, this will be signal for FED to decrease % rates;

CONCLUSION
US Core CPI still over 2% FED target level, where same time PMI much higher 50 points, unemployment on low level, Friday’s retail sales was good. So US economy have all advantages and going well and for June or, probably, July, no any reason for FED to decrease % rates. And it possible that FED will not need to decrease % rates at all, as US economy will continue to go well.
Same time EU do not have where to decrease % rates and looking on this, US economy now have all advantages over EU, that create potential for downtrend on eur/usd and EU equity market.


PRICE FORECAST
EUR/USD
(Risk of % rates decreasing is falling, US economy is going well)
1 scenario: from 1.1205 possible correction to 1.1310 and then downtrend to 1.1150 – 1.1110 (or directly from 1.1205);
2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 1.1320 to 1.1455.

GOLD
(Risk of % rates decreasing is falling, US economy is going well. Gold trading on the top and need correction, equity market trading on the top, when gold still without correction)
1 scenario: from 1341 correction to 1346/48, then downtrend to 1328/21;
2 scenario, if risk for % rates decreasing will increase: from 1360 to 1395 and 1432.

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