The March natural gas contract had a range of almost 7 cents today yet settled only two ticks higher as prices rallied then sold off on disagreeing weather models. 

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The March contract was actually the weakest on the day, as later contracts exhibited more strength and warmer early afternoon weather models took their toll at the front of the futures strip the most. 

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The result was a move lower in the J/V April/October spread even as prices rose. 

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Prices initially rallied this morning in line with our expectations, as we warned clients in our Morning Update that modest overnight GWDD additions would allow prices to bounce. 

However, we also warned that weak cash prices could drag down the March contract after an initial bounce, which played out well. 

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Then after a second bounce, the GEFS weather model guidance trended warmer in the long-range, hitting the March contract hardest (image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). 

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