Versus Late-January Highs In US Stocks, Sentiment Nowhere As Giddy


A similar phenomenon is at work elsewhere. The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) exposure index represents members’ average exposure to US equity markets. As of last week, it stood at 78.3. This is high, but not high enough to warrant caution. Once again, leading up to the late-January peak in the S&P 500, NAAIM members were north of 90 for several weeks, including two 100-plus readings in December, one of which was a record 120.56. Now, there has not been a 90, or higher, reading in the past nine weeks. Once again, the question is, is this because bulls are all in and there is no ammo left or the cautionary types that sat out the latest rally will eventually get dragged into it? If it is the latter, in due course the Russell 2000 will end up leading the other major indices. If it is the former, watch out. The S&P 500 could double top (Chart 1). For now, Tuesday’s all-time high on the S&P 500 came in a shooting star session, which was then followed by a doji. At least near term, a pause/reversal is due. Six sessions ago, bulls defended breakout retest at 2800. How they react when another test occurs will be telling.

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Larry Ramer 2 years ago Contributor's comment

Once more trade dealsare reached, sentiment will rebound to January levels.