USD/ZAR Price Forecast: Rand Remains Resilient Despite Vaccine Drama

Despite an increase in risk-on sentiment, the South African Rand has faltered, as bulls trading USD/ZAR catalyzed on the recent setback in the Covid-19 vaccine rollout program, pushing price action towards the key psychological level of 15.00, threatening the nascent recovery of the Emerging Market (EM) currency.

Just one week after receiving the first batch of the AstraZeneca vaccine, expected to be distributed to the country’s healthcare workers, South Africa is already facing challenges expediting its plan to achieve herd immunity after the vaccine proved to be relatively ineffective against the dominant South African variant of the virus, which currently accounts for approximately 90% of positive cases in the country. With South Africa yet to administer a single dose of the vaccine, the decision to suspend the distribution of the AstraZeneca batch may continue to weigh on the already volatile Rand, forming a hindrance for further progression.


With the US Dollar facing its own challenges, USD/ZAR continues to trade within a zone of confluency between key Fibonacci Retracement levels, providing both support and resistance for the currency pair. The declining trendline continues to provide resistance around the level of 15.35 with the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) remaining above the zero line.

USD/ZAR Daily Chart


Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

Meanwhile, whipsaw price action continues to favor the bears, with price action clinging to the lower bounds of the donchian channel.

With the release of SA unemployment data on Thursday 11 February 2011, technicals may just over-ride the Fundamentals as prices remain at the forefront of fundamentals.

USD/ZAR Four Hour Chart

USD/ZAR Price Forecast: Rand Remains Resilient Despite Vaccine Drama

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

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