The USD/JPY price analysis is slightly bullish as the dollar recovers ahead of the FOMC policy meeting minutes. At the same time, investors are speculating ahead of crucial speeches from top Fed and Bank of Japan policymakers.

The US dollar has fallen since the beginning of the week as traders fully priced in a Fed rate cut at the September meeting. However, consumer inflation increased moderately in July, reducing bets of a 50-bps rate cut. Nevertheless, there is an over 70% chance of a smaller 25-bps cut. 

Traders are on the edge, waiting to see whether policymakers will support this outlook. The FOMC minutes will show how officials decided to hold rates at the last meeting and their confidence levels with the progress on inflation.

Experts believe the market is highly dovish. Therefore, any signs that policymakers are less dovish could benefit the dollar. Powell will speak on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors will listen keenly for hints on the size and pace of future rate cuts. If he sounds cautious or less dovish than expectations, it could trigger a rally in the dollar. 

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will also speak on Friday. Markets will wait to see if he signals another rate hike and supports the yen. A Reuters poll on Wednesday revealed that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates again this year. 

USD/JPY key events today

• FOMC Meeting Minutes

USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears struggle to detach from 0.382 Fib resistance

(Click on image to enlarge)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is recovering after making a new low. However, the bearish bias remains intact, with the price below the 30-SMA and the RSI under 50. Bears recently broke below the 0.382 Fib level. 

The price is now trying to detach from this level but keeps pulling back. If bears regain momentum, USD/JPY will likely collapse to the 142.56 support level. On the other hand, if bulls take control with a break above the 30-SMA, the price might rally to the 150.03 resistance level.

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