USDJPY Pushing Higher

Following the intervention-driven move lower in USDJPY over the start of the month, the pair has steadily recovered off the 151.81 lows and is now almost back up at the 158.28 level. Given that Japanese authorities intervened as price tested 160 last month, there is a very real risk of further intervention measures if price continues to push higher here. Strident pushback from Fed members in recent weeks against near-term Fed easing expectations have firmly underpinned USD, helping drive the pair higher here.

USD Data on Watch

Looking ahead, there is plenty of upside risk given the key US data readings we have on deck today and tomorrow. Today’s prelim Q2 GDP will be the first event risk to monitor. Any upside surprise in the data will strengthen the view that the Fed will hold off from easing until closer towards the end of the year. Tomorrow, core PCE will then be the headline focus. If inflation pressures are seen to be sticky at current levels, or have risen, this will be firmly bullish for USD, likely pushing USDJPY up through the 158.28 level.

Hawkish BOJ Comments

Ahead of the data, we’re seeing a slightly firmer Yen today on the back of comments yesterday from the BOJ. Policymaker Adachi told reporters that the BOJ might be moved to hike rates again if JPY weakness is seen posing an upside threat to inflation. These comments are notable given the current price action and are perhaps a signal that the BOJ is preparing to move again, raising risks of a near-term correction lower in the pair.

Technical Views

USDJPY

The rally off the 151.81 level has seen the market breaking back above 156.18 with price now sitting just below 158.28. Bearish divergence in momentum studies highlights reversal risks. Medium-term view stays bullish while price holds within the bull channel and above the 151.81 level support. 

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