The USD/CAD price analysis shows a mild retracement amid a bullish trend as the dollar falls after the US presidential debate. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious ahead of US inflation data, which could give clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. 

The presidential debate on Tuesday weighed on the dollar as Kamala Harris came out stronger. The dollar prefers a Trump win as tariffs and government spending would increase, boosting interest rates. However, after the debate, bets for a Trump win fell.

Meanwhile, investors remained cautious ahead of the US CPI report. Analysts expect cooler price pressure at 2.6% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, on the monthly, inflation will likely hold steady at 0.2%. If price pressures drop significantly, bets for a 50 bps rate cut will increase, putting pressure on the dollar. On the other hand, if inflation supports a gradual rate-cutting cycle, the dollar might edge higher. Currently, there is a 67% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. The CPI report will give more clues on the size of the rate cut at the FOMC policy meeting next week.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar lost ground in the previous session as oil prices fell. Demand concerns have put a lot of pressure on fuel. At the same time, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem gave a speech saying there was a chance of more significant rate cuts if growth misses forecasts. 

USD/CAD key events today

• Core CPI m/m
• CPI m/m
• CPI y/y

USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bullish momentum pauses at 1.3600 resistance

(Click on image to enlarge)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused its rally near the 1.3600 resistance level. Bulls briefly punctured the level before pulling back below. Nevertheless, the bullish bias remains as the price trades above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI sits in bullish territory above 50. 

If the pullback continues, the price will likely soon revisit the 30-SMA support. However, if bulls retain control, it will bounce off the SMA to retest the 1.3600 resistance level. A break above 1.3600 will clear the path for the price to climb to the 1.3701 resistance level.

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