The USD/CAD price analysis shows a bearish shift in sentiment after data revealed that inflation in Canada was higher than expected. Meanwhile, the dollar eased as safe-haven demand caused by Putin’s nuclear announcement faded.
Data on Tuesday revealed that Canada’s inflation prices increased by 2.0% in October, above estimates of 1.9%. Moreover, it was well above the previous reading of 1.6%. Consequently, traders lowered bets for another super-sized rate cut in December.
Initially, low inflation and poor growth in Canada pushed the Bank of Canada to cut rates by 50-bps in October. Furthermore, markets were pricing a 38% chance of another such move in December. However, after the inflation report, this likelihood fell to 23%. As a result, the Canadian dollar rallied against the dollar.
On the other hand, the greenback eased after a rally early on Tuesday due to safe-haven demand. Traders rushed for safety after Putin announced a lower threshold for using nuclear power against Ukraine. This change came after Ukraine used US missiles to attack Russia. However, the US made no response, easing fears of a nuclear war and an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Meanwhile, markets await more clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Policymakers have maintained a slightly hawkish tone, leading to a decline in bets for a December rate cut. Moreover, looming policy changes under Trump’s administration have changed the outlook for future Fed moves. Upbeat economic data will further support a pause in December. On the other hand, if data comes in line with forecasts or is slightly below, the Fed will cut rates by 25-bps in December.
USD/CAD key events today
- US unemployment claims
USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears plunge to 1.3951 support
(Click on image to enlarge)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has broken below its bullish trendline, indicating a shift in sentiment. At the same time, the price trades far below the 30-SMA, showing a solid lead by bears. Meanwhile, the RSI trades near the oversold region, suggesting solid bearish momentum.
However, bears are facing the 1.3951 support level. A break below this level will allow bears to revisit the 1.3850 level. However, before that, the price might retest the recently broken trendline.
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